Extreme-PLS with missing data under weak dependence

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Girard, Stéphane, Pakzad, Cambyse
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Girard, Stéphane
Pakzad, Cambyse
author_facet Girard, Stéphane
Pakzad, Cambyse
contents This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal dependence between a response variable and high-dimensional covariates, we extend the approach to more realistic data settings where both serial correlation and missing-ness occur. Specifically, we consider a single-index inverse regression model under heavy-tailed conditions and introduce a Missing-at-Random (MAR) mechanism acting on the covariates, whose probability depends on the extremeness of the response. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimator is established within an alpha-mixing framework, leading to consistency results under regularly varying tails. Extensive Monte-Carlo experiments covering eleven dependence schemes (including ARMA, GARCH, and nonlinear ESTAR processes) demonstrate that the method performs robustly across a wide range of heavy-tailed and dependent scenarios, even when substantial portions of data are missing. A real-world application to environmental data further confirms the method's capacity to recover meaningful tail directions.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_11338
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Extreme-PLS with missing data under weak dependence
Girard, Stéphane
Pakzad, Cambyse
Methodology
Statistics Theory
62G32, 62H25, 62D10, 62M10
This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal dependence between a response variable and high-dimensional covariates, we extend the approach to more realistic data settings where both serial correlation and missing-ness occur. Specifically, we consider a single-index inverse regression model under heavy-tailed conditions and introduce a Missing-at-Random (MAR) mechanism acting on the covariates, whose probability depends on the extremeness of the response. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimator is established within an alpha-mixing framework, leading to consistency results under regularly varying tails. Extensive Monte-Carlo experiments covering eleven dependence schemes (including ARMA, GARCH, and nonlinear ESTAR processes) demonstrate that the method performs robustly across a wide range of heavy-tailed and dependent scenarios, even when substantial portions of data are missing. A real-world application to environmental data further confirms the method's capacity to recover meaningful tail directions.
title Extreme-PLS with missing data under weak dependence
topic Methodology
Statistics Theory
62G32, 62H25, 62D10, 62M10
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.11338