Scalable and Communication-Efficient Varying Coefficient Mixed Effect Models: Methodology, Theory, and Applications

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Hauptverfasser: Dehkharghani, Lida Chalangar Jalili, Lin, Li-Hsiang
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Dehkharghani, Lida Chalangar Jalili
Lin, Li-Hsiang
author_facet Dehkharghani, Lida Chalangar Jalili
Lin, Li-Hsiang
contents Human migration exhibits complex spatiotemporal dependence driven by environmental and socioeconomic forces. Modeling such patterns at scale requires methods that accommodate many random effects while remaining feasible when raw data or large design matrices cannot be freely shared across distributed nodes. We develop a communication-efficient inference framework for Varying Coefficient Mixed Models (VCMMs) with flexible mean structures and large correlated random-effect components. Using a Bayesian hierarchical representation of penalized splines, we derive sufficient statistics that preserve each node's likelihood contribution and recover the estimator from the full data under unrestricted communication. Under communication constraints, these statistics support a one-step communication-efficient estimator with first-order efficiency. An SVD-enhanced implementation stabilizes large or ill-conditioned random-effect covariance operators. Theory establishes likelihood preservation, convergence, asymptotic efficiency, and finite-sample concentration. Simulations and U.S. migration-flow data demonstrate accuracy, scalability, and recovery of dynamic spatial patterns.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_12732
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Scalable and Communication-Efficient Varying Coefficient Mixed Effect Models: Methodology, Theory, and Applications
Dehkharghani, Lida Chalangar Jalili
Lin, Li-Hsiang
Methodology
Human migration exhibits complex spatiotemporal dependence driven by environmental and socioeconomic forces. Modeling such patterns at scale requires methods that accommodate many random effects while remaining feasible when raw data or large design matrices cannot be freely shared across distributed nodes. We develop a communication-efficient inference framework for Varying Coefficient Mixed Models (VCMMs) with flexible mean structures and large correlated random-effect components. Using a Bayesian hierarchical representation of penalized splines, we derive sufficient statistics that preserve each node's likelihood contribution and recover the estimator from the full data under unrestricted communication. Under communication constraints, these statistics support a one-step communication-efficient estimator with first-order efficiency. An SVD-enhanced implementation stabilizes large or ill-conditioned random-effect covariance operators. Theory establishes likelihood preservation, convergence, asymptotic efficiency, and finite-sample concentration. Simulations and U.S. migration-flow data demonstrate accuracy, scalability, and recovery of dynamic spatial patterns.
title Scalable and Communication-Efficient Varying Coefficient Mixed Effect Models: Methodology, Theory, and Applications
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.12732