Overtourism to Equilibrium: A System Dynamics & Multi-Objective Model for Sustainable Destinations
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866909910827008000 |
|---|---|
| author | Lyu, Huanzhu Yang, Xiao Ji, Xintong |
| author_facet | Lyu, Huanzhu Yang, Xiao Ji, Xintong |
| contents | Overtourism poses severe challenges to popular destinations worldwide, threatening natural environments and local communities. This paper develops a decision-making model integrating system dynamics with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (NSGA-II) to balance economic returns, environmental protection, and social satisfaction. We collect multi-source data from 2008-2024 including visitor arrivals (up to 3.1M), government revenue/expenditure (up to $10.3M), glacier retreat (220-350 ft), CO2 emissions (77K-105K tons), and social satisfaction (0.29-0.48), and establish a dynamic system with four modules: tourist behavior, government finance, environmental evolution, and social well-being.
We optimize three objectives via NSGA-II: cumulative net revenue, final environmental index, and final social satisfaction. Experiments on Juneau show optimal solutions yield net revenue up to $1.64B with environmental index 0.93 and social satisfaction 0.86. Extending to Iceland reveals Pareto fronts spanning revenues $150M-$200M, environment indices up to 0.92, and social satisfaction above 0.80.
Sobol and Morris sensitivity analyses indicate carbon fees and price elasticity account for over 60% of environmental outcome variance, while capacity limits explain around 90% of net revenue variability. Scenario simulations demonstrate how capacity limits and dynamic pricing on crowded attractions, combined with marketing and infrastructure investment in lesser-known sites, mitigate congestion and enhance sustainability.
This work contributes: (i) an integrated system-dynamics and NSGA-II framework for sustainable tourism management; (ii) demonstrated portability via case studies on Juneau and Iceland; and (iii) global sensitivity analysis highlighting influential policy levers for decision makers. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_14288 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Overtourism to Equilibrium: A System Dynamics & Multi-Objective Model for Sustainable Destinations Lyu, Huanzhu Yang, Xiao Ji, Xintong Systems and Control I.2.8; J.4; G.1.6 Overtourism poses severe challenges to popular destinations worldwide, threatening natural environments and local communities. This paper develops a decision-making model integrating system dynamics with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (NSGA-II) to balance economic returns, environmental protection, and social satisfaction. We collect multi-source data from 2008-2024 including visitor arrivals (up to 3.1M), government revenue/expenditure (up to $10.3M), glacier retreat (220-350 ft), CO2 emissions (77K-105K tons), and social satisfaction (0.29-0.48), and establish a dynamic system with four modules: tourist behavior, government finance, environmental evolution, and social well-being. We optimize three objectives via NSGA-II: cumulative net revenue, final environmental index, and final social satisfaction. Experiments on Juneau show optimal solutions yield net revenue up to $1.64B with environmental index 0.93 and social satisfaction 0.86. Extending to Iceland reveals Pareto fronts spanning revenues $150M-$200M, environment indices up to 0.92, and social satisfaction above 0.80. Sobol and Morris sensitivity analyses indicate carbon fees and price elasticity account for over 60% of environmental outcome variance, while capacity limits explain around 90% of net revenue variability. Scenario simulations demonstrate how capacity limits and dynamic pricing on crowded attractions, combined with marketing and infrastructure investment in lesser-known sites, mitigate congestion and enhance sustainability. This work contributes: (i) an integrated system-dynamics and NSGA-II framework for sustainable tourism management; (ii) demonstrated portability via case studies on Juneau and Iceland; and (iii) global sensitivity analysis highlighting influential policy levers for decision makers. |
| title | Overtourism to Equilibrium: A System Dynamics & Multi-Objective Model for Sustainable Destinations |
| topic | Systems and Control I.2.8; J.4; G.1.6 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14288 |