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Autori principali: Locatelli, Marco, Hommersom, Arjen, Cerioli, Roberto Clemens, Besozzi, Daniela, Stella, Fabio
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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Accesso online:https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14619
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author Locatelli, Marco
Hommersom, Arjen
Cerioli, Roberto Clemens
Besozzi, Daniela
Stella, Fabio
author_facet Locatelli, Marco
Hommersom, Arjen
Cerioli, Roberto Clemens
Besozzi, Daniela
Stella, Fabio
contents Learning the parameters of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) from limited data is a significant challenge. We introduce the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm, a novel approach that incorporates expert knowledge into the parameter estimation process by enriching the Expectation Maximization (EM) framework with fuzzy pseudo-counts derived from an expert-defined fuzzy model. This integration naturally reformulates the problem as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation, effectively guiding learning in environments with limited data. In synthetic medical simulations, our method consistently outperforms the standard EM algorithm under both low-data and high-noise conditions. Furthermore, a case study on Myasthenia Gravis illustrates the ability of the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm to recover a clinically coherent POMDP, demonstrating its potential as a practical tool for data-efficient modeling in healthcare.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_14619
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publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Expert-Guided POMDP Learning for Data-Efficient Modeling in Healthcare
Locatelli, Marco
Hommersom, Arjen
Cerioli, Roberto Clemens
Besozzi, Daniela
Stella, Fabio
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Learning the parameters of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) from limited data is a significant challenge. We introduce the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm, a novel approach that incorporates expert knowledge into the parameter estimation process by enriching the Expectation Maximization (EM) framework with fuzzy pseudo-counts derived from an expert-defined fuzzy model. This integration naturally reformulates the problem as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation, effectively guiding learning in environments with limited data. In synthetic medical simulations, our method consistently outperforms the standard EM algorithm under both low-data and high-noise conditions. Furthermore, a case study on Myasthenia Gravis illustrates the ability of the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm to recover a clinically coherent POMDP, demonstrating its potential as a practical tool for data-efficient modeling in healthcare.
title Expert-Guided POMDP Learning for Data-Efficient Modeling in Healthcare
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14619