Possibilistic Instrumental Variable Regression

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Steiner, Gregor, Houssineau, Jeremie, Steel, Mark F. J.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Steiner, Gregor
Houssineau, Jeremie
Steel, Mark F. J.
author_facet Steiner, Gregor
Houssineau, Jeremie
Steel, Mark F. J.
contents Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on possibility theory that performs posterior inference on the treatment effect, conditional on a user-specified set of potential violations of the exogeneity assumption. Our method can provide informative results even when only a single, potentially invalid, instrument is available, offering a natural and principled framework for sensitivity analysis. Simulation experiments and a real-data application indicate strong performance of the proposed approach.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_16029
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Possibilistic Instrumental Variable Regression
Steiner, Gregor
Houssineau, Jeremie
Steel, Mark F. J.
Methodology
Econometrics
Statistics Theory
Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on possibility theory that performs posterior inference on the treatment effect, conditional on a user-specified set of potential violations of the exogeneity assumption. Our method can provide informative results even when only a single, potentially invalid, instrument is available, offering a natural and principled framework for sensitivity analysis. Simulation experiments and a real-data application indicate strong performance of the proposed approach.
title Possibilistic Instrumental Variable Regression
topic Methodology
Econometrics
Statistics Theory
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16029