An Investigation of Systematic Effects from Background Priors on PSR J0740$+$6620 Radius Estimates using Synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton Data

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Main Authors: Holt, Isiah M., Miller, M. Coleman, Dittmann, Alexander J., Lamb, Frederick K.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Holt, Isiah M.
Miller, M. Coleman
Dittmann, Alexander J.
Lamb, Frederick K.
author_facet Holt, Isiah M.
Miller, M. Coleman
Dittmann, Alexander J.
Lamb, Frederick K.
contents Accurate and precise measurements of neutron star radii provide invaluable information about the cold, dense matter in neutron star cores. Analyses of synthetic X-ray pulse waveform data similar to the data obtained from non-accreting neutron stars using the Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) have indicated that mass and radius estimates made using such data are robust against some systematic errors that may be made when modeling these data, such as errors in the assumed pattern of the thermal X-ray emission from the surface of these stars. A potentially important but so far unexplored source of systematic error is misparameterization of unmodulated background components, which can bias the inferred radius, particularly when data from different telescopes are used in the analysis. In this study, we investigate the effects of the background model on radius estimates by jointly analyzing synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton data, using the $\sim 2.1~M_\odot$ pulsar PSR~J0740$+$6620 as a prototypical example. Our analysis shows that even if the background assumed in the model underestimates the actual background by a factor of more than five, the resulting shift of the radius posterior from the true value of the radius corresponds to only $\sim1σ$. In all the cases we examined, the Bayesian evidence for the correct background model is greater than for the incorrect background model. These results add to the evidence that analyses of NICER-like data provide accurate measurements of neutron star radii when the statistical sampling is thorough and the model fits the data well.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_16759
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle An Investigation of Systematic Effects from Background Priors on PSR J0740$+$6620 Radius Estimates using Synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton Data
Holt, Isiah M.
Miller, M. Coleman
Dittmann, Alexander J.
Lamb, Frederick K.
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Accurate and precise measurements of neutron star radii provide invaluable information about the cold, dense matter in neutron star cores. Analyses of synthetic X-ray pulse waveform data similar to the data obtained from non-accreting neutron stars using the Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) have indicated that mass and radius estimates made using such data are robust against some systematic errors that may be made when modeling these data, such as errors in the assumed pattern of the thermal X-ray emission from the surface of these stars. A potentially important but so far unexplored source of systematic error is misparameterization of unmodulated background components, which can bias the inferred radius, particularly when data from different telescopes are used in the analysis. In this study, we investigate the effects of the background model on radius estimates by jointly analyzing synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton data, using the $\sim 2.1~M_\odot$ pulsar PSR~J0740$+$6620 as a prototypical example. Our analysis shows that even if the background assumed in the model underestimates the actual background by a factor of more than five, the resulting shift of the radius posterior from the true value of the radius corresponds to only $\sim1σ$. In all the cases we examined, the Bayesian evidence for the correct background model is greater than for the incorrect background model. These results add to the evidence that analyses of NICER-like data provide accurate measurements of neutron star radii when the statistical sampling is thorough and the model fits the data well.
title An Investigation of Systematic Effects from Background Priors on PSR J0740$+$6620 Radius Estimates using Synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton Data
topic High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16759