Periodic extreme rainfall in a warmer climate due to stronger convectively-coupled waves
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914170121748480 |
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| author | Quan, Heng Zhang, Yi Dagan, Guy Fueglistaler, Stephan |
| author_facet | Quan, Heng Zhang, Yi Dagan, Guy Fueglistaler, Stephan |
| contents | Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that precipitation transitions from a steady state to a periodic oscillation state in a hothouse climate when the sea surface temperature reaches 320-325 K. Here we conduct global-scale atmospheric model simulations with different complexity, and we find that tropical precipitation in convective regions already transitions to a O(10 day) periodic oscillation state with a O(100 mm/day) amplitude at 305-310 K. This temperature is substantially lower than previously reported, and within reach in a century under a high carbon emission scenario. We attribute the onset of the periodic extreme precipitation to the intensification of convectively-coupled waves, which occurs at temperatures much lower than the radiative mechanism responsible for the transition around 320-325 K identified before. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_19876 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Periodic extreme rainfall in a warmer climate due to stronger convectively-coupled waves Quan, Heng Zhang, Yi Dagan, Guy Fueglistaler, Stephan Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Fluid Dynamics Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that precipitation transitions from a steady state to a periodic oscillation state in a hothouse climate when the sea surface temperature reaches 320-325 K. Here we conduct global-scale atmospheric model simulations with different complexity, and we find that tropical precipitation in convective regions already transitions to a O(10 day) periodic oscillation state with a O(100 mm/day) amplitude at 305-310 K. This temperature is substantially lower than previously reported, and within reach in a century under a high carbon emission scenario. We attribute the onset of the periodic extreme precipitation to the intensification of convectively-coupled waves, which occurs at temperatures much lower than the radiative mechanism responsible for the transition around 320-325 K identified before. |
| title | Periodic extreme rainfall in a warmer climate due to stronger convectively-coupled waves |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Fluid Dynamics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.19876 |