Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866917106474287104 |
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| author | Meijerink, Lotta M. Leeuwenberg, Artuur M. Choi, Jungyeon de Vries, Bas B. L. Penning Langendijk, Johannes A. van Loon, Judith G. M. Nout, Remi A. Moons, Karel G. M. Schuit, Ewoud |
| author_facet | Meijerink, Lotta M. Leeuwenberg, Artuur M. Choi, Jungyeon de Vries, Bas B. L. Penning Langendijk, Johannes A. van Loon, Judith G. M. Nout, Remi A. Moons, Karel G. M. Schuit, Ewoud |
| contents | Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing observed outcomes under a new treatment with predicted outcomes had these patients received the standard treatment. This article clarifies the relevant conditions needed for valid average treatment effect estimation using this approach, using the potential outcomes framework and a practical case study. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_21266 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy Meijerink, Lotta M. Leeuwenberg, Artuur M. Choi, Jungyeon de Vries, Bas B. L. Penning Langendijk, Johannes A. van Loon, Judith G. M. Nout, Remi A. Moons, Karel G. M. Schuit, Ewoud Methodology Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing observed outcomes under a new treatment with predicted outcomes had these patients received the standard treatment. This article clarifies the relevant conditions needed for valid average treatment effect estimation using this approach, using the potential outcomes framework and a practical case study. |
| title | Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.21266 |