Model Predictive Control and Moving Horizon Estimation using Statistically Weighted Data-Based Ensemble Models

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: de Giuli, Laura Boca, Mallick, Samuel, La Bella, Alessio, Dabiri, Azita, De Schutter, Bart, Scattolini, Riccardo
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author de Giuli, Laura Boca
Mallick, Samuel
La Bella, Alessio
Dabiri, Azita
De Schutter, Bart
Scattolini, Riccardo
author_facet de Giuli, Laura Boca
Mallick, Samuel
La Bella, Alessio
Dabiri, Azita
De Schutter, Bart
Scattolini, Riccardo
contents This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging an ensemble of data-based models to optimally control complex systems under multiple operating conditions. A novel combination rule for ensemble models is proposed, based on the statistical Mahalanobis distance, enabling the ensemble weights to suitably vary across the prediction window based on the system input. In addition, a novel state observer for ensemble models is developed using moving horizon estimation (MHE). The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a benchmark energy system operating under multiple conditions.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_21343
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Model Predictive Control and Moving Horizon Estimation using Statistically Weighted Data-Based Ensemble Models
de Giuli, Laura Boca
Mallick, Samuel
La Bella, Alessio
Dabiri, Azita
De Schutter, Bart
Scattolini, Riccardo
Systems and Control
This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging an ensemble of data-based models to optimally control complex systems under multiple operating conditions. A novel combination rule for ensemble models is proposed, based on the statistical Mahalanobis distance, enabling the ensemble weights to suitably vary across the prediction window based on the system input. In addition, a novel state observer for ensemble models is developed using moving horizon estimation (MHE). The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a benchmark energy system operating under multiple conditions.
title Model Predictive Control and Moving Horizon Estimation using Statistically Weighted Data-Based Ensemble Models
topic Systems and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.21343