Correlation-Weighted Communicability Curvature as a Structural Driver of Dengue Spread: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Recife (2015-2024)
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866912914683723776 |
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| author | Santos, Marcílio Ferreira dos Ricardo, Cleiton de Lima de Melo, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues |
| author_facet | Santos, Marcílio Ferreira dos Ricardo, Cleiton de Lima de Melo, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues |
| contents | We investigate whether the structural connectivity of urban road networks helps explain dengue incidence in Recife, Brazil (2015--2024). For each neighborhood, we compute the average \emph{communicability curvature}, a graph-theoretic measure capturing the ability of a locality to influence others through multiple network paths. We integrate this metric into Negative Binomial models, fixed-effects regressions, SAR/SAC spatial models, and a hierarchical INLA/BYM2 specification. Across all frameworks, curvature is the strongest and most stable predictor of dengue risk. In the BYM2 model, the structured spatial component collapses ($ϕ\approx 0$), indicating that functional network connectivity explains nearly all spatial dependence typically attributed to adjacency-based CAR terms. The results show that dengue spread in Recife is driven less by geographic contiguity and more by network-mediated structural flows. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_00315 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Correlation-Weighted Communicability Curvature as a Structural Driver of Dengue Spread: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Recife (2015-2024) Santos, Marcílio Ferreira dos Ricardo, Cleiton de Lima de Melo, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues Physics and Society Probability Populations and Evolution Applications 92D30, 05C82, 37N25 We investigate whether the structural connectivity of urban road networks helps explain dengue incidence in Recife, Brazil (2015--2024). For each neighborhood, we compute the average \emph{communicability curvature}, a graph-theoretic measure capturing the ability of a locality to influence others through multiple network paths. We integrate this metric into Negative Binomial models, fixed-effects regressions, SAR/SAC spatial models, and a hierarchical INLA/BYM2 specification. Across all frameworks, curvature is the strongest and most stable predictor of dengue risk. In the BYM2 model, the structured spatial component collapses ($ϕ\approx 0$), indicating that functional network connectivity explains nearly all spatial dependence typically attributed to adjacency-based CAR terms. The results show that dengue spread in Recife is driven less by geographic contiguity and more by network-mediated structural flows. |
| title | Correlation-Weighted Communicability Curvature as a Structural Driver of Dengue Spread: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Recife (2015-2024) |
| topic | Physics and Society Probability Populations and Evolution Applications 92D30, 05C82, 37N25 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00315 |