Global Banks' Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Macro to Micro Transmission

Fuente: arXiv
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Autori principali: Arnabal, Luis Rodrigo, Camara, Santiago, Dassatti, Cecilia
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Arnabal, Luis Rodrigo
Camara, Santiago
Dassatti, Cecilia
author_facet Arnabal, Luis Rodrigo
Camara, Santiago
Dassatti, Cecilia
contents This paper studies how shocks to global banks' net worth transmit to Emerging Market Economies. Using the identification strategy of Ottonello and Song (2022), which isolates high-frequency surprises to banks' credit supply capacity, we show that positive shocks appreciate local currencies, lower external borrowing costs, increase capital flows to domestic banking sectors, and raise investment, credit, and real activity across EMEs. These effects are highly robust across specifications and samples. Using administrative credit-registry data from Uruguay, we find that better capitalized banks transmit global credit easing more strongly. At the firm level, responses are weaker for more leveraged firms, especially those with foreign-currency debt, short maturities, or collateral not priced to market.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_01132
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Global Banks' Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Macro to Micro Transmission
Arnabal, Luis Rodrigo
Camara, Santiago
Dassatti, Cecilia
General Economics
Economics
This paper studies how shocks to global banks' net worth transmit to Emerging Market Economies. Using the identification strategy of Ottonello and Song (2022), which isolates high-frequency surprises to banks' credit supply capacity, we show that positive shocks appreciate local currencies, lower external borrowing costs, increase capital flows to domestic banking sectors, and raise investment, credit, and real activity across EMEs. These effects are highly robust across specifications and samples. Using administrative credit-registry data from Uruguay, we find that better capitalized banks transmit global credit easing more strongly. At the firm level, responses are weaker for more leveraged firms, especially those with foreign-currency debt, short maturities, or collateral not priced to market.
title Global Banks' Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Macro to Micro Transmission
topic General Economics
Economics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.01132