Beware of Reasoning Overconfidence: Pitfalls in the Reasoning Process for Multi-solution Tasks

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Guan, Jiannan, Chen, Qiguang, Qin, Libo, Peng, Dengyun, Liu, Jinhao, Huo, Liangyu, Xie, Jian, Che, Wanxiang
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Guan, Jiannan
Chen, Qiguang
Qin, Libo
Peng, Dengyun
Liu, Jinhao
Huo, Liangyu
Xie, Jian
Che, Wanxiang
author_facet Guan, Jiannan
Chen, Qiguang
Qin, Libo
Peng, Dengyun
Liu, Jinhao
Huo, Liangyu
Xie, Jian
Che, Wanxiang
contents Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in reasoning tasks requiring a single correct answer, but they perform poorly in multi-solution tasks that require generating comprehensive and diverse answers. We attribute this limitation to \textbf{reasoning overconfidence}: a tendency to express undue certainty in an incomplete solution set. To examine the effect, we introduce \textit{MuSoBench}, a benchmark of multi-solution problems. Experiments show that the conventional short chain-of-thought (Short-CoT) prompting paradigm exhibits pronounced overconfidence, whereas the emerging long chain-of-thought (Long-CoT) approach mitigates it through iterative exploration and self-reflection. We further characterise observable behaviours and influential factors. To probe the underlying cause, we propose the \textbf{cognitive-rigidity hypothesis}, which posits that overconfidence arises when the reasoning process prematurely converges on a narrow set of thought paths. An attention-entropy analysis offers preliminary support for this view. These findings provide tools for assessing the completeness of LLM reasoning and highlight the need to move evaluation beyond single-answer accuracy toward comprehensive exploration.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_01725
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Beware of Reasoning Overconfidence: Pitfalls in the Reasoning Process for Multi-solution Tasks
Guan, Jiannan
Chen, Qiguang
Qin, Libo
Peng, Dengyun
Liu, Jinhao
Huo, Liangyu
Xie, Jian
Che, Wanxiang
Computation and Language
Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in reasoning tasks requiring a single correct answer, but they perform poorly in multi-solution tasks that require generating comprehensive and diverse answers. We attribute this limitation to \textbf{reasoning overconfidence}: a tendency to express undue certainty in an incomplete solution set. To examine the effect, we introduce \textit{MuSoBench}, a benchmark of multi-solution problems. Experiments show that the conventional short chain-of-thought (Short-CoT) prompting paradigm exhibits pronounced overconfidence, whereas the emerging long chain-of-thought (Long-CoT) approach mitigates it through iterative exploration and self-reflection. We further characterise observable behaviours and influential factors. To probe the underlying cause, we propose the \textbf{cognitive-rigidity hypothesis}, which posits that overconfidence arises when the reasoning process prematurely converges on a narrow set of thought paths. An attention-entropy analysis offers preliminary support for this view. These findings provide tools for assessing the completeness of LLM reasoning and highlight the need to move evaluation beyond single-answer accuracy toward comprehensive exploration.
title Beware of Reasoning Overconfidence: Pitfalls in the Reasoning Process for Multi-solution Tasks
topic Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.01725