Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912970230988800 |
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| author | Xiong, Weiwei Tanaka, Katsumasa |
| author_facet | Xiong, Weiwei Tanaka, Katsumasa |
| contents | Whereas there is growing interest in exploring longer-term climate with overshoot, including tipping elements, beyond 2100, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only till 2100. Here we propose a framework to extend scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our framework offers a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_06026 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework Xiong, Weiwei Tanaka, Katsumasa Physics and Society Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Whereas there is growing interest in exploring longer-term climate with overshoot, including tipping elements, beyond 2100, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only till 2100. Here we propose a framework to extend scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our framework offers a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100. |
| title | Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework |
| topic | Physics and Society Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.06026 |