Information Borrowing from Partially Compatible Trajectories for Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Regimes
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915890332696576 |
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| author | Si, Chloe Stephens, David A. Moodie, Erica E. M. |
| author_facet | Si, Chloe Stephens, David A. Moodie, Erica E. M. |
| contents | Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) provide a systematic framework for optimizing sequential decision-making in chronic disease management, where therapies must adapt to patients' evolving clinical profiles. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a cornerstone methodology for estimating regime values from observational data due to its intuitive formulation and established theoretical properties, yet standard IPW estimators face significant limitations, including variance instability and data inefficiency. A fundamental but underexplored source of inefficiency lies in the strict alignment requirement between observed and target treatment trajectories, which fails to account for partial compatibility and discards substantial information from individuals with only minimal deviations from the regime. We propose two novel methodologies that relax the strict inclusion rule through flexible compatibility mechanisms. Both methods provide computationally tractable alternatives that can be easily integrated into existing IPW workflows, offering more efficient approaches to DTR estimation. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that both estimators preserve consistency while achieving superior finite-sample efficiency compared to standard IPW, and comprehensive simulation studies confirm improved stability. We illustrate the practical utility of our methods through an application to HIV treatment data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study 175 (ACTG175). |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_10069 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Information Borrowing from Partially Compatible Trajectories for Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Regimes Si, Chloe Stephens, David A. Moodie, Erica E. M. Methodology Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) provide a systematic framework for optimizing sequential decision-making in chronic disease management, where therapies must adapt to patients' evolving clinical profiles. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a cornerstone methodology for estimating regime values from observational data due to its intuitive formulation and established theoretical properties, yet standard IPW estimators face significant limitations, including variance instability and data inefficiency. A fundamental but underexplored source of inefficiency lies in the strict alignment requirement between observed and target treatment trajectories, which fails to account for partial compatibility and discards substantial information from individuals with only minimal deviations from the regime. We propose two novel methodologies that relax the strict inclusion rule through flexible compatibility mechanisms. Both methods provide computationally tractable alternatives that can be easily integrated into existing IPW workflows, offering more efficient approaches to DTR estimation. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that both estimators preserve consistency while achieving superior finite-sample efficiency compared to standard IPW, and comprehensive simulation studies confirm improved stability. We illustrate the practical utility of our methods through an application to HIV treatment data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study 175 (ACTG175). |
| title | Information Borrowing from Partially Compatible Trajectories for Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Regimes |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10069 |