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Autori principali: Freni, Francesco, Fries, Anya, Kühne, Linus, Reichstein, Markus, Peters, Jonas
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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Accesso online:https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10445
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author Freni, Francesco
Fries, Anya
Kühne, Linus
Reichstein, Markus
Peters, Jonas
author_facet Freni, Francesco
Fries, Anya
Kühne, Linus
Reichstein, Markus
Peters, Jonas
contents We consider a regression setting where observations are collected in different environments modeled by different data distributions. The field of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization aims to design methods that generalize better to test environments whose distributions differ from those observed during training. One line of such works has proposed to minimize the maximum risk across environments, a principle that we refer to as MaxRM (Maximum Risk Minimization). In this work, we introduce variants of random forests based on the principle of MaxRM. We provide computationally efficient algorithms and prove statistical consistency for our primary method. Our proposed method can be used with each of the following three risks: the mean squared error, the negative reward, and the regret (which quantifies the excess risk relative to the best predictor). For MaxRM with regret as the risk, we prove a novel out-of-sample guarantee over unseen test distributions. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methods on both simulated and real-world data.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_10445
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Maximum Risk Minimization with Random Forests
Freni, Francesco
Fries, Anya
Kühne, Linus
Reichstein, Markus
Peters, Jonas
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Methodology
We consider a regression setting where observations are collected in different environments modeled by different data distributions. The field of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization aims to design methods that generalize better to test environments whose distributions differ from those observed during training. One line of such works has proposed to minimize the maximum risk across environments, a principle that we refer to as MaxRM (Maximum Risk Minimization). In this work, we introduce variants of random forests based on the principle of MaxRM. We provide computationally efficient algorithms and prove statistical consistency for our primary method. Our proposed method can be used with each of the following three risks: the mean squared error, the negative reward, and the regret (which quantifies the excess risk relative to the best predictor). For MaxRM with regret as the risk, we prove a novel out-of-sample guarantee over unseen test distributions. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methods on both simulated and real-world data.
title Maximum Risk Minimization with Random Forests
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10445