Keep the Lights On, Keep the Lengths in Check: Plug-In Adversarial Detection for Time-Series LLMs in Energy Forecasting
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2025
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| author | Ma, Hua Sun, Ruoxi Xue, Minhui Yuan, Xingliang Rudolph, Carsten Nepal, Surya Liu, Ling |
| author_facet | Ma, Hua Sun, Ruoxi Xue, Minhui Yuan, Xingliang Rudolph, Carsten Nepal, Surya Liu, Ling |
| contents | Accurate time-series forecasting is increasingly critical for planning and operations in low-carbon power systems. Emerging time-series large language models (TS-LLMs) now deliver this capability at scale, requiring no task-specific retraining, and are quickly becoming essential components within the Internet-of-Energy (IoE) ecosystem. However, their real-world deployment is complicated by a critical vulnerability: adversarial examples (AEs). Detecting these AEs is challenging because (i) adversarial perturbations are optimized across the entire input sequence and exploit global temporal dependencies, which renders local detection methods ineffective, and (ii) unlike traditional forecasting models with fixed input dimensions, TS-LLMs accept sequences of variable length, increasing variability that complicates detection. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-in detection framework that capitalizes on the TS-LLM's own variable-length input capability. Our method uses sampling-induced divergence as a detection signal. Given an input sequence, we generate multiple shortened variants and detect AEs by measuring the consistency of their forecasts: Benign sequences tend to produce stable predictions under sampling, whereas adversarial sequences show low forecast similarity, because perturbations optimized for a full-length sequence do not transfer reliably to shorter, differently-structured subsamples. We evaluate our approach on three representative TS-LLMs (TimeGPT, TimesFM, and TimeLLM) across three energy datasets: ETTh2 (Electricity Transformer Temperature), NI (Hourly Energy Consumption), and Consumption (Hourly Electricity Consumption and Production). Empirical results confirm strong and robust detection performance across both black-box and white-box attack scenarios, highlighting its practicality as a reliable safeguard for TS-LLM forecasting in real-world energy systems. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_12154 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Keep the Lights On, Keep the Lengths in Check: Plug-In Adversarial Detection for Time-Series LLMs in Energy Forecasting Ma, Hua Sun, Ruoxi Xue, Minhui Yuan, Xingliang Rudolph, Carsten Nepal, Surya Liu, Ling Cryptography and Security Machine Learning Accurate time-series forecasting is increasingly critical for planning and operations in low-carbon power systems. Emerging time-series large language models (TS-LLMs) now deliver this capability at scale, requiring no task-specific retraining, and are quickly becoming essential components within the Internet-of-Energy (IoE) ecosystem. However, their real-world deployment is complicated by a critical vulnerability: adversarial examples (AEs). Detecting these AEs is challenging because (i) adversarial perturbations are optimized across the entire input sequence and exploit global temporal dependencies, which renders local detection methods ineffective, and (ii) unlike traditional forecasting models with fixed input dimensions, TS-LLMs accept sequences of variable length, increasing variability that complicates detection. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-in detection framework that capitalizes on the TS-LLM's own variable-length input capability. Our method uses sampling-induced divergence as a detection signal. Given an input sequence, we generate multiple shortened variants and detect AEs by measuring the consistency of their forecasts: Benign sequences tend to produce stable predictions under sampling, whereas adversarial sequences show low forecast similarity, because perturbations optimized for a full-length sequence do not transfer reliably to shorter, differently-structured subsamples. We evaluate our approach on three representative TS-LLMs (TimeGPT, TimesFM, and TimeLLM) across three energy datasets: ETTh2 (Electricity Transformer Temperature), NI (Hourly Energy Consumption), and Consumption (Hourly Electricity Consumption and Production). Empirical results confirm strong and robust detection performance across both black-box and white-box attack scenarios, highlighting its practicality as a reliable safeguard for TS-LLM forecasting in real-world energy systems. |
| title | Keep the Lights On, Keep the Lengths in Check: Plug-In Adversarial Detection for Time-Series LLMs in Energy Forecasting |
| topic | Cryptography and Security Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12154 |