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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12493 |
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| _version_ | 1866908709107531776 |
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| author | Kaushal, Vaarunay Mall, Rajib |
| author_facet | Kaushal, Vaarunay Mall, Rajib |
| contents | Early identification of at-risk students is critical for effective intervention in online learning environments. This study extends temporal prediction analysis to Week 20 (50% of course duration), comparing Decision Tree and Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM) models across six temporal snapshots. Our analysis reveals that different performance metrics matter at different intervention stages: high recall is critical for early intervention (Weeks 2-4), while balanced precision-recall is important for mid-course resource allocation (Weeks 8-16), and high precision becomes paramount in later stages (Week 20). We demonstrate that static demographic features dominate predictions (68% importance), enabling assessment-free early prediction. The LSTM model achieves 97% recall at Week 2, making it ideal for early intervention, while Decision Tree provides stable balanced performance (78% accuracy) during mid-course. By Week 20, both models converge to similar recall (68%), but LSTM achieves higher precision (90% vs 86%). Our findings also suggest that model selection should depend on intervention timing, and that early signals (Weeks 2-4) are sufficient for reliable initial prediction using primarily demographic and pre-enrollment information. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_12493 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | AI-Driven Early Warning Systems for Student Success: Discovering Static Feature Dominance in Temporal Prediction Models Kaushal, Vaarunay Mall, Rajib Machine Learning Early identification of at-risk students is critical for effective intervention in online learning environments. This study extends temporal prediction analysis to Week 20 (50% of course duration), comparing Decision Tree and Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM) models across six temporal snapshots. Our analysis reveals that different performance metrics matter at different intervention stages: high recall is critical for early intervention (Weeks 2-4), while balanced precision-recall is important for mid-course resource allocation (Weeks 8-16), and high precision becomes paramount in later stages (Week 20). We demonstrate that static demographic features dominate predictions (68% importance), enabling assessment-free early prediction. The LSTM model achieves 97% recall at Week 2, making it ideal for early intervention, while Decision Tree provides stable balanced performance (78% accuracy) during mid-course. By Week 20, both models converge to similar recall (68%), but LSTM achieves higher precision (90% vs 86%). Our findings also suggest that model selection should depend on intervention timing, and that early signals (Weeks 2-4) are sufficient for reliable initial prediction using primarily demographic and pre-enrollment information. |
| title | AI-Driven Early Warning Systems for Student Success: Discovering Static Feature Dominance in Temporal Prediction Models |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12493 |