Dual-Model Framework for CHIKV Transmission Modeling: ODE and Petri Net Analysis of the 2025 Foshan Outbreak
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866911316878295040 |
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| author | Liu, Hong Tian, Jingjing Li, Yiping Zhong, Yuyang Yang, Haibo Chen, Dong Yang, Zifeng |
| author_facet | Liu, Hong Tian, Jingjing Li, Yiping Zhong, Yuyang Yang, Haibo Chen, Dong Yang, Zifeng |
| contents | This study constructs a dual-model framework integrating Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) and Petri Nets (PN) to analyze the 2025 Chikungunya outbreak in Foshan City, China. We employ SEICR compartmental modeling to compare two distinct approaches under identical epidemiological scenarios and evaluate intervention effectiveness through three-phase fitting protocols. Both models demonstrate excellent accuracy with MAE of 18.77-18.91 cases and RMSE of 36.52-36.54 cases. Models predicted epidemic peaks at day 32 (406 cases), 3 days earlier than observed (day 35, 432 cases), with 6.0% peak value error. Reproduction number analysis revealed initial R0 of 14.67 (ODE)/13.90 (PN), with effective reproduction numbers decreasing through intervention phases: 7.85/7.86 after Phase 1, 7.59/7.56 after Phase 2, and 0.059 in Phase 3, achieving transmission blockade. Sensitivity analysis showed recovery rate) as the most sensitive parameter (Sobol index 0.9672), explaining 96.72% of R0 variation. This study presents the first systematic ODE-Petri Net comparison, providing a novel dual-model framework for vector-borne disease modeling with significant theoretical and practical value for epidemic control strategy formulation. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_12577 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Dual-Model Framework for CHIKV Transmission Modeling: ODE and Petri Net Analysis of the 2025 Foshan Outbreak Liu, Hong Tian, Jingjing Li, Yiping Zhong, Yuyang Yang, Haibo Chen, Dong Yang, Zifeng Populations and Evolution 92D30, 68Q85 I.6.4; J.3 This study constructs a dual-model framework integrating Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) and Petri Nets (PN) to analyze the 2025 Chikungunya outbreak in Foshan City, China. We employ SEICR compartmental modeling to compare two distinct approaches under identical epidemiological scenarios and evaluate intervention effectiveness through three-phase fitting protocols. Both models demonstrate excellent accuracy with MAE of 18.77-18.91 cases and RMSE of 36.52-36.54 cases. Models predicted epidemic peaks at day 32 (406 cases), 3 days earlier than observed (day 35, 432 cases), with 6.0% peak value error. Reproduction number analysis revealed initial R0 of 14.67 (ODE)/13.90 (PN), with effective reproduction numbers decreasing through intervention phases: 7.85/7.86 after Phase 1, 7.59/7.56 after Phase 2, and 0.059 in Phase 3, achieving transmission blockade. Sensitivity analysis showed recovery rate) as the most sensitive parameter (Sobol index 0.9672), explaining 96.72% of R0 variation. This study presents the first systematic ODE-Petri Net comparison, providing a novel dual-model framework for vector-borne disease modeling with significant theoretical and practical value for epidemic control strategy formulation. |
| title | Dual-Model Framework for CHIKV Transmission Modeling: ODE and Petri Net Analysis of the 2025 Foshan Outbreak |
| topic | Populations and Evolution 92D30, 68Q85 I.6.4; J.3 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12577 |