CapOptix: An Options-Framework for Capacity Market Pricing

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Roy, Millend, Capponi, Agostino, Pyltsov, Vladimir, Hu, Yinbo, Modi, Vijay
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Roy, Millend
Capponi, Agostino
Pyltsov, Vladimir
Hu, Yinbo
Modi, Vijay
author_facet Roy, Millend
Capponi, Agostino
Pyltsov, Vladimir
Hu, Yinbo
Modi, Vijay
contents Electricity markets are under increasing pressure to maintain reliability amidst rising renewable penetration, demand variability, and occasional price shocks. Traditional capacity market designs often fall short in addressing this by relying on expected-value metrics of energy unserved, which overlook risk exposure in such systems. In this work, we present CapOptix, a capacity pricing framework that interprets capacity commitments as reliability options, i.e., financial derivatives of wholesale electricity prices. CapOptix characterizes the capacity premia charged by accounting for structural price shifts modeled by the Markov Regime Switching Process. We apply the framework to historical price data from multiple electricity markets and compare the resulting premium ranges with existing capacity remuneration mechanisms.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_12871
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle CapOptix: An Options-Framework for Capacity Market Pricing
Roy, Millend
Capponi, Agostino
Pyltsov, Vladimir
Hu, Yinbo
Modi, Vijay
Systems and Control
Computational Finance
Pricing of Securities
Applications
Electricity markets are under increasing pressure to maintain reliability amidst rising renewable penetration, demand variability, and occasional price shocks. Traditional capacity market designs often fall short in addressing this by relying on expected-value metrics of energy unserved, which overlook risk exposure in such systems. In this work, we present CapOptix, a capacity pricing framework that interprets capacity commitments as reliability options, i.e., financial derivatives of wholesale electricity prices. CapOptix characterizes the capacity premia charged by accounting for structural price shifts modeled by the Markov Regime Switching Process. We apply the framework to historical price data from multiple electricity markets and compare the resulting premium ranges with existing capacity remuneration mechanisms.
title CapOptix: An Options-Framework for Capacity Market Pricing
topic Systems and Control
Computational Finance
Pricing of Securities
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12871