The supernova Ia progenitor problem in the 2040s

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Main Authors: Kupfer, Thomas, Scaringi, Simone, Pelisoli, Ingrid, Pala, Anna F., Toonen, Silvia, de Martino, Domitilla, Gall, Christa, Deshmukh, Kunal, Van Grootel, Valerie, Blondin, Stéphane, Nissanke, Samaya
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Kupfer, Thomas
Scaringi, Simone
Pelisoli, Ingrid
Pala, Anna F.
Toonen, Silvia
de Martino, Domitilla
Gall, Christa
Deshmukh, Kunal
Van Grootel, Valerie
Blondin, Stéphane
Nissanke, Samaya
author_facet Kupfer, Thomas
Scaringi, Simone
Pelisoli, Ingrid
Pala, Anna F.
Toonen, Silvia
de Martino, Domitilla
Gall, Christa
Deshmukh, Kunal
Van Grootel, Valerie
Blondin, Stéphane
Nissanke, Samaya
contents Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are fundamental to cosmology and galactic chemical evolution, yet the nature of their progenitor systems remains unresolved. Multiple evolutionary pathways, including single-degenerate, double-degenerate, and helium-donor systems, are thought to contribute to the SN Ia population, but direct observational constraints are limited. This uncertainty hampers our understanding of SN Ia diversity and introduces systematic uncertainties in their use as precision cosmological probes. By the 2040s, surveys such as Gaia, LSST, SDSS-V, 4MOST, and the gravitational-wave mission LISA will identify thousands of compact binaries in the Milky Way that are potential SN Ia progenitors. However, survey discoveries alone are insufficient. Robust identification and characterization require high-time-resolution, phase-resolved spectroscopy to determine fundamental parameters such as component masses, orbital inclinations, chemical compositions, and accretion states. Addressing these challenges demands new observational capabilities. The most compact binaries require continuous, dead-time-free spectroscopy with negligible readout noise, while the progenitor population spans a wide range of brightness and orbital periods. A modular, multi-aperture telescope array equipped with fast, low-noise spectrographs can flexibly combine collecting area for faint targets, observe bright systems efficiently, and deliver uninterrupted time series through staggered exposures. Such observations are difficult for single-aperture facilities.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_16991
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle The supernova Ia progenitor problem in the 2040s
Kupfer, Thomas
Scaringi, Simone
Pelisoli, Ingrid
Pala, Anna F.
Toonen, Silvia
de Martino, Domitilla
Gall, Christa
Deshmukh, Kunal
Van Grootel, Valerie
Blondin, Stéphane
Nissanke, Samaya
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Astrophysics of Galaxies
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are fundamental to cosmology and galactic chemical evolution, yet the nature of their progenitor systems remains unresolved. Multiple evolutionary pathways, including single-degenerate, double-degenerate, and helium-donor systems, are thought to contribute to the SN Ia population, but direct observational constraints are limited. This uncertainty hampers our understanding of SN Ia diversity and introduces systematic uncertainties in their use as precision cosmological probes. By the 2040s, surveys such as Gaia, LSST, SDSS-V, 4MOST, and the gravitational-wave mission LISA will identify thousands of compact binaries in the Milky Way that are potential SN Ia progenitors. However, survey discoveries alone are insufficient. Robust identification and characterization require high-time-resolution, phase-resolved spectroscopy to determine fundamental parameters such as component masses, orbital inclinations, chemical compositions, and accretion states. Addressing these challenges demands new observational capabilities. The most compact binaries require continuous, dead-time-free spectroscopy with negligible readout noise, while the progenitor population spans a wide range of brightness and orbital periods. A modular, multi-aperture telescope array equipped with fast, low-noise spectrographs can flexibly combine collecting area for faint targets, observe bright systems efficiently, and deliver uninterrupted time series through staggered exposures. Such observations are difficult for single-aperture facilities.
title The supernova Ia progenitor problem in the 2040s
topic Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Astrophysics of Galaxies
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16991