Prediction of the Solar Polar Fields in 2026: An Unusually Weak Level Across the Last Five Solar Cycles
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866912986169344000 |
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| author | Wang, Ruihui Jiang, Jie Luo, Yukun |
| author_facet | Wang, Ruihui Jiang, Jie Luo, Yukun |
| contents | Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable polar-field prediction is now especially important. Polar-field evolution is governed by the poleward transport of already-emerged active-region (AR) flux over a timescale of a few years. Thus, surface flux-transport models can reliably provide one-year predictions without requiring information about future AR emergence. Our prediction method is validated using simulations of the surface magnetic field from 2020-2025 and hindcasts of the 2023-2024 polar fields, employing a newly constrained profile of the meridional flow. Using the most recent HMI synoptic magnetogram as the initial condition, we predict the polar-field evolution from October 2025 to October 2026. The southern polar field is predicted to strengthen gradually, while the northern field is expected to decline sharply until March 2026 due to some ARs with abnormal polarity. By that time, the northern polar field becomes exceptionally weak, and the southern field remains relatively weak, raising concerns about the polar-field strength at the cycle 25/26 minimum and the amplitude of cycle 26. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_17359 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Prediction of the Solar Polar Fields in 2026: An Unusually Weak Level Across the Last Five Solar Cycles Wang, Ruihui Jiang, Jie Luo, Yukun Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable polar-field prediction is now especially important. Polar-field evolution is governed by the poleward transport of already-emerged active-region (AR) flux over a timescale of a few years. Thus, surface flux-transport models can reliably provide one-year predictions without requiring information about future AR emergence. Our prediction method is validated using simulations of the surface magnetic field from 2020-2025 and hindcasts of the 2023-2024 polar fields, employing a newly constrained profile of the meridional flow. Using the most recent HMI synoptic magnetogram as the initial condition, we predict the polar-field evolution from October 2025 to October 2026. The southern polar field is predicted to strengthen gradually, while the northern field is expected to decline sharply until March 2026 due to some ARs with abnormal polarity. By that time, the northern polar field becomes exceptionally weak, and the southern field remains relatively weak, raising concerns about the polar-field strength at the cycle 25/26 minimum and the amplitude of cycle 26. |
| title | Prediction of the Solar Polar Fields in 2026: An Unusually Weak Level Across the Last Five Solar Cycles |
| topic | Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17359 |