Quantifying the Lifelong Impact of Resilience Interventions via Agent-Based LLM Simulation
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914213657575424 |
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| author | Ming, Vivienne L'Ecuyer |
| author_facet | Ming, Vivienne L'Ecuyer |
| contents | Establishing the long-term, causal impact of psychological interventions on life outcomes is a grand challenge for the social sciences, caught between the limitations of correlational longitudinal studies and short-term randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This paper introduces Large-Scale Agent-based Longitudinal Simulation (LALS), a framework that resolves this impasse by simulating multi-decade, counterfactual life trajectories. The methodology employs a "digital clone" design where 2,500 unique LLM-based agent personas (grounded in a curated corpus of 3,917 empirical research articles) are each cloned across a 2x2 factorial experiment. Specifically, the simulation models the efficacy of extended psychological resilience training (Intervention vs. Control) either in childhood or as a young adult (age 6 vs. age 18). Comparing digital clones enables exceptionally precise causal inference. The simulation provides a quantitative, causal estimate of a resilience intervention's lifelong effects, revealing significant reductions in mortality, a lower incidence of dementia, and a substantial increase in accumulated wealth. Crucially, the results uncover a crucial developmental window: the intervention administered at age 6 produced more than double the positive impact on lifetime wealth compared to the same intervention at age 18. These benefits were most pronounced for agents from low-socioeconomic backgrounds, highlighting a powerful buffering effect. The LALS framework serves as a "computational wind tunnel" for social science, offering a new paradigm for generating and testing causal hypotheses about the complex, lifelong dynamics that shape human capital and well-being. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_18803 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Quantifying the Lifelong Impact of Resilience Interventions via Agent-Based LLM Simulation Ming, Vivienne L'Ecuyer Computers and Society Multiagent Systems Establishing the long-term, causal impact of psychological interventions on life outcomes is a grand challenge for the social sciences, caught between the limitations of correlational longitudinal studies and short-term randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This paper introduces Large-Scale Agent-based Longitudinal Simulation (LALS), a framework that resolves this impasse by simulating multi-decade, counterfactual life trajectories. The methodology employs a "digital clone" design where 2,500 unique LLM-based agent personas (grounded in a curated corpus of 3,917 empirical research articles) are each cloned across a 2x2 factorial experiment. Specifically, the simulation models the efficacy of extended psychological resilience training (Intervention vs. Control) either in childhood or as a young adult (age 6 vs. age 18). Comparing digital clones enables exceptionally precise causal inference. The simulation provides a quantitative, causal estimate of a resilience intervention's lifelong effects, revealing significant reductions in mortality, a lower incidence of dementia, and a substantial increase in accumulated wealth. Crucially, the results uncover a crucial developmental window: the intervention administered at age 6 produced more than double the positive impact on lifetime wealth compared to the same intervention at age 18. These benefits were most pronounced for agents from low-socioeconomic backgrounds, highlighting a powerful buffering effect. The LALS framework serves as a "computational wind tunnel" for social science, offering a new paradigm for generating and testing causal hypotheses about the complex, lifelong dynamics that shape human capital and well-being. |
| title | Quantifying the Lifelong Impact of Resilience Interventions via Agent-Based LLM Simulation |
| topic | Computers and Society Multiagent Systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18803 |