Numerical Analysis of Test Optimality

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Ketz, Philipp, McCloskey, Adam, Scherer, Jan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Ketz, Philipp
McCloskey, Adam
Scherer, Jan
author_facet Ketz, Philipp
McCloskey, Adam
Scherer, Jan
contents In nonstandard testing environments, researchers often derive ad hoc tests with correct (asymptotic) size, but their optimality properties are typically unknown a priori and difficult to assess. This paper develops a numerical framework for determining whether an ad hoc test is effectively optimal - approximately maximizing a weighted average power criterion for some weights over the alternative and attaining a power envelope generated by a single weighted average power-maximizing test. Our approach uses nested optimization algorithms to approximate the weight function that makes an ad hoc test's weighted average power as close as possible to that of a true weighted average power-maximizing test, and we show the surprising result that the rejection probabilities corresponding to the latter form an approximate power envelope for the former. We provide convergence guarantees, discuss practical implementation and apply the method to the weak instrument-robust conditional likelihood ratio test and a recently-proposed test for when a nuisance parameter may be on or near its boundary.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_19843
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Numerical Analysis of Test Optimality
Ketz, Philipp
McCloskey, Adam
Scherer, Jan
Econometrics
Statistics Theory
Computation
In nonstandard testing environments, researchers often derive ad hoc tests with correct (asymptotic) size, but their optimality properties are typically unknown a priori and difficult to assess. This paper develops a numerical framework for determining whether an ad hoc test is effectively optimal - approximately maximizing a weighted average power criterion for some weights over the alternative and attaining a power envelope generated by a single weighted average power-maximizing test. Our approach uses nested optimization algorithms to approximate the weight function that makes an ad hoc test's weighted average power as close as possible to that of a true weighted average power-maximizing test, and we show the surprising result that the rejection probabilities corresponding to the latter form an approximate power envelope for the former. We provide convergence guarantees, discuss practical implementation and apply the method to the weak instrument-robust conditional likelihood ratio test and a recently-proposed test for when a nuisance parameter may be on or near its boundary.
title Numerical Analysis of Test Optimality
topic Econometrics
Statistics Theory
Computation
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19843