US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025)
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914589183049728 |
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| author | Rodriguez, Francisco Bravo, Giancarlo |
| author_facet | Rodriguez, Francisco Bravo, Giancarlo |
| contents | Bahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and southwest border crossings. We show that this conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle-Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle-Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper's approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar's approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_21429 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025) Rodriguez, Francisco Bravo, Giancarlo Econometrics Bahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and southwest border crossings. We show that this conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle-Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle-Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper's approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar's approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration. |
| title | US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025) |
| topic | Econometrics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.21429 |