$\ell_0$-Regularized Item Response Theory Model for Robust Ideal Point Estimation

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Seo, Kwangok, Lim, Johan, Lee, Seokho, Park, Jong Hee
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Seo, Kwangok
Lim, Johan
Lee, Seokho
Park, Jong Hee
author_facet Seo, Kwangok
Lim, Johan
Lee, Seokho
Park, Jong Hee
contents Ideal point estimation methods face a significant challenge when legislators engage in protest voting -- strategically voting against their party to express dissatisfaction. Such votes introduce attenuation bias, making ideologically extreme legislators appear artificially moderate. We propose a novel statistical framework that extends the fast EM-based estimation approach of \cite{Imai2016} using $\ell_0$ regularization method to handle protest votes. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our proposed method maintains estimation accuracy even with high proportions of protest votes, while being substantially faster than MCMC-based methods. Applying our method to the 116th and 117th U.S. House of Representatives, we successfully recover the extreme liberal positions of ``the Squad'', whose protest votes had caused conventional methods to misclassify them as moderates. While conventional methods rank Ocasio-Cortez as more conservative than 69\% of Democrats, our method places her firmly in the progressive wing, aligning with her documented policy positions. This approach provides both robust ideal point estimates and systematic identification of protest votes, facilitating deeper analysis of strategic voting behavior in legislatures.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2512_24642
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle $\ell_0$-Regularized Item Response Theory Model for Robust Ideal Point Estimation
Seo, Kwangok
Lim, Johan
Lee, Seokho
Park, Jong Hee
Applications
Ideal point estimation methods face a significant challenge when legislators engage in protest voting -- strategically voting against their party to express dissatisfaction. Such votes introduce attenuation bias, making ideologically extreme legislators appear artificially moderate. We propose a novel statistical framework that extends the fast EM-based estimation approach of \cite{Imai2016} using $\ell_0$ regularization method to handle protest votes. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our proposed method maintains estimation accuracy even with high proportions of protest votes, while being substantially faster than MCMC-based methods. Applying our method to the 116th and 117th U.S. House of Representatives, we successfully recover the extreme liberal positions of ``the Squad'', whose protest votes had caused conventional methods to misclassify them as moderates. While conventional methods rank Ocasio-Cortez as more conservative than 69\% of Democrats, our method places her firmly in the progressive wing, aligning with her documented policy positions. This approach provides both robust ideal point estimates and systematic identification of protest votes, facilitating deeper analysis of strategic voting behavior in legislatures.
title $\ell_0$-Regularized Item Response Theory Model for Robust Ideal Point Estimation
topic Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24642