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Main Authors: Gonçalves, Demerson N., Fernandes, Tharso D., Lugao, Pedro H. G., Dias, João T.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00745
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author Gonçalves, Demerson N.
Fernandes, Tharso D.
Lugao, Pedro H. G.
Dias, João T.
author_facet Gonçalves, Demerson N.
Fernandes, Tharso D.
Lugao, Pedro H. G.
Dias, João T.
contents We present a training-free, certified error bound for quantum regression derived directly from Pauli expectation values. Generalizing the heuristic of minimum accuracy from classification to regression, we evaluate axis-aligned predictors within the Pauli feature space. We formally prove that the optimal axis-aligned predictor constitutes a rigorous upper bound on the minimum training Mean Squared Error (MSE) attainable by any linear or kernel-based regressor defined on the same quantum feature map. Since computing this exact bound requires an intractable scan of the full Pauli basis, we introduce a Monte Carlo framework to efficiently estimate it using a tractable subset of measurement axes. We further provide non-asymptotic statistical guarantees to certify performance within a practical measurement budget. This method enables rapid comparison of quantum feature maps and early diagnosis of expressivity, allowing for the informed selection of architectures before deploying higher-complexity models.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_00745
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Training-Free Certified Bounds for Quantum Regression: A Scalable Framework
Gonçalves, Demerson N.
Fernandes, Tharso D.
Lugao, Pedro H. G.
Dias, João T.
Quantum Physics
We present a training-free, certified error bound for quantum regression derived directly from Pauli expectation values. Generalizing the heuristic of minimum accuracy from classification to regression, we evaluate axis-aligned predictors within the Pauli feature space. We formally prove that the optimal axis-aligned predictor constitutes a rigorous upper bound on the minimum training Mean Squared Error (MSE) attainable by any linear or kernel-based regressor defined on the same quantum feature map. Since computing this exact bound requires an intractable scan of the full Pauli basis, we introduce a Monte Carlo framework to efficiently estimate it using a tractable subset of measurement axes. We further provide non-asymptotic statistical guarantees to certify performance within a practical measurement budget. This method enables rapid comparison of quantum feature maps and early diagnosis of expressivity, allowing for the informed selection of architectures before deploying higher-complexity models.
title Training-Free Certified Bounds for Quantum Regression: A Scalable Framework
topic Quantum Physics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00745