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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00842 |
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| _version_ | 1866918269721509888 |
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| author | Aravantinos, Elias |
| author_facet | Aravantinos, Elias |
| contents | This study introduces the Digital Competitiveness Index for Trade (DCIT), a composite metric integrating ICT readiness, broadband adoption, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, and trade volume to assess countries' digital trade competitiveness. The index captures the enabling conditions -- ICT innovation capacity, broadband diffusion, investment intensity, and macroeconomic fundamentals - that shape a nation's ability to participate in digital trade. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates strong robustness: adjusting ICT-FDI weights alters DCIT outcomes by only 26%, with near perfect linearity (R^2 = 0.9996). Predictive validation shows that DCIT is a strong explainer of trade connectivity growth (R^2 = 0.67) but a modest predictor of GDP expansion. Scenario simulations reveal that combined ICT and FDI acceleration consistently outperforms single-lever strategies, with gains increasing by cluster maturity (up to 10% in advanced clusters). High-growth scenarios generate a 50-60% uplift in competitiveness for mid-tier and advanced clusters, underscoring the importance of integrated digital investment strategies. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_00842 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Forecasting ICT-Driven Trade Competitiveness 2024-2028: A Cluster and Scenario Analysis Aravantinos, Elias General Economics Economics This study introduces the Digital Competitiveness Index for Trade (DCIT), a composite metric integrating ICT readiness, broadband adoption, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, and trade volume to assess countries' digital trade competitiveness. The index captures the enabling conditions -- ICT innovation capacity, broadband diffusion, investment intensity, and macroeconomic fundamentals - that shape a nation's ability to participate in digital trade. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates strong robustness: adjusting ICT-FDI weights alters DCIT outcomes by only 26%, with near perfect linearity (R^2 = 0.9996). Predictive validation shows that DCIT is a strong explainer of trade connectivity growth (R^2 = 0.67) but a modest predictor of GDP expansion. Scenario simulations reveal that combined ICT and FDI acceleration consistently outperforms single-lever strategies, with gains increasing by cluster maturity (up to 10% in advanced clusters). High-growth scenarios generate a 50-60% uplift in competitiveness for mid-tier and advanced clusters, underscoring the importance of integrated digital investment strategies. |
| title | Forecasting ICT-Driven Trade Competitiveness 2024-2028: A Cluster and Scenario Analysis |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00842 |