Fare-Free Bus Service and CO2 Reductions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866912802619260928 |
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| author | Alberini, Anna Bas, Javier Cirillo, Cinzia |
| author_facet | Alberini, Anna Bas, Javier Cirillo, Cinzia |
| contents | We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic.
One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_02190 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Fare-Free Bus Service and CO2 Reductions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment Alberini, Anna Bas, Javier Cirillo, Cinzia Econometrics We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic. One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas. |
| title | Fare-Free Bus Service and CO2 Reductions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment |
| topic | Econometrics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02190 |