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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02190 |
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Table of Contents:
- We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic. One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas.