A Probabilistic Digital Twin of UK En Route Airspace for Training and Evaluating AI Agents for Air Traffic Control
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917193879388160 |
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| author | Pepper, Nick Keane, Adam Hodgkin, Amy Gould, Dewi Henderson, Edward Lauritsen, Lynge Vlahos, Christos De Ath, George Everson, Richard Cannon, Richard Castro, Alvaro Sierra Korna, John Carvell, Ben Thomas, Marc |
| author_facet | Pepper, Nick Keane, Adam Hodgkin, Amy Gould, Dewi Henderson, Edward Lauritsen, Lynge Vlahos, Christos De Ath, George Everson, Richard Cannon, Richard Castro, Alvaro Sierra Korna, John Carvell, Ben Thomas, Marc |
| contents | This paper presents the first probabilistic Digital Twin of operational en route airspace, developed for the London Area Control Centre. The Digital Twin is intended to support the development and rigorous human-in-the-loop evaluation of AI agents for Air Traffic Control (ATC), providing a virtual representation of real-world airspace that enables safe exploration of higher levels of ATC automation.
This paper makes three significant contributions: firstly, we demonstrate how historical and live operational data may be combined with a probabilistic, physics-informed machine learning model of aircraft performance to reproduce real-world traffic scenarios, while accurately reflecting the level of uncertainty inherent in ATC. Secondly, we develop a structured assurance case, following the Trustworthy and Ethical Assurance framework, to provide quantitative evidence for the Digital Twin's accuracy and fidelity. This is crucial to building trust in this novel technology within this safety-critical domain. Thirdly, we describe how the Digital Twin forms a unified environment for agent testing and evaluation. This includes fast-time execution (up to x200 real-time), a standardised Python-based ``gym'' interface that supports a range of AI agent designs, and a suite of quantitative metrics for assessing performance. Crucially, the framework facilitates competency-based assessment of AI agents by qualified Air Traffic Control Officers through a Human Machine Interface. We also outline further applications and future extensions of the Digital Twin architecture. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_03113 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Probabilistic Digital Twin of UK En Route Airspace for Training and Evaluating AI Agents for Air Traffic Control Pepper, Nick Keane, Adam Hodgkin, Amy Gould, Dewi Henderson, Edward Lauritsen, Lynge Vlahos, Christos De Ath, George Everson, Richard Cannon, Richard Castro, Alvaro Sierra Korna, John Carvell, Ben Thomas, Marc Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science This paper presents the first probabilistic Digital Twin of operational en route airspace, developed for the London Area Control Centre. The Digital Twin is intended to support the development and rigorous human-in-the-loop evaluation of AI agents for Air Traffic Control (ATC), providing a virtual representation of real-world airspace that enables safe exploration of higher levels of ATC automation. This paper makes three significant contributions: firstly, we demonstrate how historical and live operational data may be combined with a probabilistic, physics-informed machine learning model of aircraft performance to reproduce real-world traffic scenarios, while accurately reflecting the level of uncertainty inherent in ATC. Secondly, we develop a structured assurance case, following the Trustworthy and Ethical Assurance framework, to provide quantitative evidence for the Digital Twin's accuracy and fidelity. This is crucial to building trust in this novel technology within this safety-critical domain. Thirdly, we describe how the Digital Twin forms a unified environment for agent testing and evaluation. This includes fast-time execution (up to x200 real-time), a standardised Python-based ``gym'' interface that supports a range of AI agent designs, and a suite of quantitative metrics for assessing performance. Crucially, the framework facilitates competency-based assessment of AI agents by qualified Air Traffic Control Officers through a Human Machine Interface. We also outline further applications and future extensions of the Digital Twin architecture. |
| title | A Probabilistic Digital Twin of UK En Route Airspace for Training and Evaluating AI Agents for Air Traffic Control |
| topic | Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03113 |