Prompting Underestimates LLM Capability for Time Series Classification
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866911508146946048 |
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| author | Schumacher, Dan Nourbakhsh, Erfan Slavin, Rocky Rios, Anthony |
| author_facet | Schumacher, Dan Nourbakhsh, Erfan Slavin, Rocky Rios, Anthony |
| contents | Prompt-based evaluations suggest that large language models (LLMs) perform poorly on time series classification, raising doubts about whether they encode meaningful temporal structure. We show that this conclusion reflects limitations of prompt-based generation rather than the model's representational capacity by directly comparing prompt outputs with linear probes over the same internal representations. While zero-shot prompting performs near chance, linear probes improve average F1 from 0.15-0.26 to 0.61-0.67, often matching or exceeding specialized time series models. Layer-wise analyses further show that class-discriminative time series information emerges in early transformer layers and is amplified by visual and multimodal inputs. Together, these results demonstrate a systematic mismatch between what LLMs internally represent and what prompt-based evaluation reveals, leading current evaluations to underestimate their time series understanding. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_03464 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Prompting Underestimates LLM Capability for Time Series Classification Schumacher, Dan Nourbakhsh, Erfan Slavin, Rocky Rios, Anthony Computation and Language Prompt-based evaluations suggest that large language models (LLMs) perform poorly on time series classification, raising doubts about whether they encode meaningful temporal structure. We show that this conclusion reflects limitations of prompt-based generation rather than the model's representational capacity by directly comparing prompt outputs with linear probes over the same internal representations. While zero-shot prompting performs near chance, linear probes improve average F1 from 0.15-0.26 to 0.61-0.67, often matching or exceeding specialized time series models. Layer-wise analyses further show that class-discriminative time series information emerges in early transformer layers and is amplified by visual and multimodal inputs. Together, these results demonstrate a systematic mismatch between what LLMs internally represent and what prompt-based evaluation reveals, leading current evaluations to underestimate their time series understanding. |
| title | Prompting Underestimates LLM Capability for Time Series Classification |
| topic | Computation and Language |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03464 |