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Main Authors: Li, Yezhuo, Zhang, Fan, Shinde, Dhanashree, Zhang, Qiong, Pradeep, Sai, Pilla, Srikanth, Li, Gang
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.05396
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author Li, Yezhuo
Zhang, Fan
Shinde, Dhanashree
Zhang, Qiong
Pradeep, Sai
Pilla, Srikanth
Li, Gang
author_facet Li, Yezhuo
Zhang, Fan
Shinde, Dhanashree
Zhang, Qiong
Pradeep, Sai
Pilla, Srikanth
Li, Gang
contents Injection molding is a critical manufacturing process, but controlling warpage remains a major challenge due to complex thermomechanical interactions. Simulation-based optimization is widely used to address this, yet traditional methods often overlook the uncertainty in model parameters. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework to minimize warpage and quantify the uncertainty of optimal process settings. We employ polynomial regression models as surrogates for the injection molding simulations of a box-shaped part. By adopting a Bayesian framework, we estimate the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. This approach allows us to generate a distribution of optimal decisions rather than a single point estimate, providing a measure of solution robustness. Furthermore, we develop a Monte Carlo-based boundary analysis method. This method constructs confidence bands for the zero-level sets of the response surfaces, helping to visualize the regions where warpage transitions between convex and concave profiles. We apply this framework to optimize four key process parameters: mold temperature, injection speed, packing pressure, and packing time. The results show that our approach finds stable process settings and clearly marks the boundaries of defects in the parameter space.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_05396
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Uncertainty Analysis of Experimental Parameters for Reducing Warpage in Injection Molding
Li, Yezhuo
Zhang, Fan
Shinde, Dhanashree
Zhang, Qiong
Pradeep, Sai
Pilla, Srikanth
Li, Gang
Methodology
Applications
Injection molding is a critical manufacturing process, but controlling warpage remains a major challenge due to complex thermomechanical interactions. Simulation-based optimization is widely used to address this, yet traditional methods often overlook the uncertainty in model parameters. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework to minimize warpage and quantify the uncertainty of optimal process settings. We employ polynomial regression models as surrogates for the injection molding simulations of a box-shaped part. By adopting a Bayesian framework, we estimate the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. This approach allows us to generate a distribution of optimal decisions rather than a single point estimate, providing a measure of solution robustness. Furthermore, we develop a Monte Carlo-based boundary analysis method. This method constructs confidence bands for the zero-level sets of the response surfaces, helping to visualize the regions where warpage transitions between convex and concave profiles. We apply this framework to optimize four key process parameters: mold temperature, injection speed, packing pressure, and packing time. The results show that our approach finds stable process settings and clearly marks the boundaries of defects in the parameter space.
title Uncertainty Analysis of Experimental Parameters for Reducing Warpage in Injection Molding
topic Methodology
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.05396