GroupSegment-SHAP: Shapley Value Explanations with Group-Segment Players for Multivariate Time Series
Fuente:
arXiv
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| _version_ | 1866914244570644480 |
|---|---|
| author | Kim, Jinwoong Park, Sangjin |
| author_facet | Kim, Jinwoong Park, Sangjin |
| contents | Multivariate time-series models achieve strong predictive performance in healthcare, industry, energy, and finance, but how they combine cross-variable interactions with temporal dynamics remains unclear. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are widely used for interpretation. However, existing time-series variants typically treat the feature and time axes independently, fragmenting structural signals formed jointly by multiple variables over specific intervals. We propose GroupSegment SHAP (GS-SHAP), which constructs explanatory units as group-segment players based on cross-variable dependence and distribution shifts over time, and then quantifies each unit's contribution via Shapley attribution. We evaluate GS-SHAP across four real-world domains: human activity recognition, power-system forecasting, medical signal analysis, and financial time series, and compare it with KernelSHAP, TimeSHAP, SequenceSHAP, WindowSHAP, and TSHAP. GS-SHAP improves deletion-based faithfulness (DeltaAUC) by about 1.7x on average over time-series SHAP baselines, while reducing wall-clock runtime by about 40 percent on average under matched perturbation budgets. A financial case study shows that GS-SHAP identifies interpretable multivariate-temporal interactions among key market variables during high-volatility regimes. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_06114 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | GroupSegment-SHAP: Shapley Value Explanations with Group-Segment Players for Multivariate Time Series Kim, Jinwoong Park, Sangjin Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computer Science and Game Theory Multivariate time-series models achieve strong predictive performance in healthcare, industry, energy, and finance, but how they combine cross-variable interactions with temporal dynamics remains unclear. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are widely used for interpretation. However, existing time-series variants typically treat the feature and time axes independently, fragmenting structural signals formed jointly by multiple variables over specific intervals. We propose GroupSegment SHAP (GS-SHAP), which constructs explanatory units as group-segment players based on cross-variable dependence and distribution shifts over time, and then quantifies each unit's contribution via Shapley attribution. We evaluate GS-SHAP across four real-world domains: human activity recognition, power-system forecasting, medical signal analysis, and financial time series, and compare it with KernelSHAP, TimeSHAP, SequenceSHAP, WindowSHAP, and TSHAP. GS-SHAP improves deletion-based faithfulness (DeltaAUC) by about 1.7x on average over time-series SHAP baselines, while reducing wall-clock runtime by about 40 percent on average under matched perturbation budgets. A financial case study shows that GS-SHAP identifies interpretable multivariate-temporal interactions among key market variables during high-volatility regimes. |
| title | GroupSegment-SHAP: Shapley Value Explanations with Group-Segment Players for Multivariate Time Series |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computer Science and Game Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06114 |