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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06124 |
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| _version_ | 1866908756745388032 |
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| author | Adepitan, Adewumi Augustine Haruna, Christopher J. Ogunsina, Morayo Yussuf, Damilola Olawoyin Ajiboye, Ayooluwatomiwa |
| author_facet | Adepitan, Adewumi Augustine Haruna, Christopher J. Ogunsina, Morayo Yussuf, Damilola Olawoyin Ajiboye, Ayooluwatomiwa |
| contents | Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly naïve heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times that integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework to correct bias from shortest-path traversal-time baselines. Using an urban testbed, the pipeline: (i) constructs drivable networks from volunteered geographic data; (ii) solves Dijkstra routes minimizing edge traversal time; (iii) derives sparse operational features (signals, stops, crossings, yield, roundabouts; left/right/slight/U-turn counts); and (iv) trains a regression ensemble on limited high-quality reference times to generalize predictions beyond the training set. Out-of-sample evaluation demonstrates marked improvements over traversal-time baselines across mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error, relative bias, and explained variance, with no significant mean bias under minimally congested conditions and consistent k-fold stability indicating negligible overfitting. The resulting approach offers a practical middle ground for transportation engineering: it preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates where congestion feeds are inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, supporting planning, accessibility, and network performance applications under low-traffic operating regimes. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_06124 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations Adepitan, Adewumi Augustine Haruna, Christopher J. Ogunsina, Morayo Yussuf, Damilola Olawoyin Ajiboye, Ayooluwatomiwa Machine Learning Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly naïve heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times that integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework to correct bias from shortest-path traversal-time baselines. Using an urban testbed, the pipeline: (i) constructs drivable networks from volunteered geographic data; (ii) solves Dijkstra routes minimizing edge traversal time; (iii) derives sparse operational features (signals, stops, crossings, yield, roundabouts; left/right/slight/U-turn counts); and (iv) trains a regression ensemble on limited high-quality reference times to generalize predictions beyond the training set. Out-of-sample evaluation demonstrates marked improvements over traversal-time baselines across mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error, relative bias, and explained variance, with no significant mean bias under minimally congested conditions and consistent k-fold stability indicating negligible overfitting. The resulting approach offers a practical middle ground for transportation engineering: it preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates where congestion feeds are inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, supporting planning, accessibility, and network performance applications under low-traffic operating regimes. |
| title | Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06124 |