Time-Series Anomaly Classification for Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems: Fast Statistical Detectors Enhancing LSTM Accuracy and Data Quality

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Engelstad, Sean P., Darr, Sameul R., Taliaferro, Matthew, Goyal, Vinay K.
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2026
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author Engelstad, Sean P.
Darr, Sameul R.
Taliaferro, Matthew
Goyal, Vinay K.
author_facet Engelstad, Sean P.
Darr, Sameul R.
Taliaferro, Matthew
Goyal, Vinay K.
contents Supporting Go/No-Go decisions prior to launch requires assessing real-time telemetry data against redline limits established during the design qualification phase. Family data from ground testing or previous flights is commonly used to detect initiating failure modes and their timing; however, this approach relies heavily on engineering judgment and is more error-prone for new launch vehicles. To address these limitations, we utilize Long-Term Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for supervised classification of time-series anomalies. Although, initial training labels derived from simulated anomaly data may be suboptimal due to variations in anomaly strength, anomaly settling times, and other factors. In this work, we propose a novel statistical detector based on the Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust the supervised training labels. We demonstrate our method on digital twin simulations of a ground-stage propulsion system with 20.8 minutes of operation per trial and O(10^8) training timesteps. The statistical data relabeling improved precision and recall of the LSTM classifier by 7% and 22% respectively.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_06186
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Time-Series Anomaly Classification for Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems: Fast Statistical Detectors Enhancing LSTM Accuracy and Data Quality
Engelstad, Sean P.
Darr, Sameul R.
Taliaferro, Matthew
Goyal, Vinay K.
Machine Learning
Applications
Supporting Go/No-Go decisions prior to launch requires assessing real-time telemetry data against redline limits established during the design qualification phase. Family data from ground testing or previous flights is commonly used to detect initiating failure modes and their timing; however, this approach relies heavily on engineering judgment and is more error-prone for new launch vehicles. To address these limitations, we utilize Long-Term Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for supervised classification of time-series anomalies. Although, initial training labels derived from simulated anomaly data may be suboptimal due to variations in anomaly strength, anomaly settling times, and other factors. In this work, we propose a novel statistical detector based on the Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust the supervised training labels. We demonstrate our method on digital twin simulations of a ground-stage propulsion system with 20.8 minutes of operation per trial and O(10^8) training timesteps. The statistical data relabeling improved precision and recall of the LSTM classifier by 7% and 22% respectively.
title Time-Series Anomaly Classification for Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems: Fast Statistical Detectors Enhancing LSTM Accuracy and Data Quality
topic Machine Learning
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06186