Structural Cointegration of the Climate--Carbon Feedback: Evidence from the Last 130,000 Years
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866911531234492416 |
|---|---|
| author | Nakano, Satoshi Nishimura, Kazuhiko |
| author_facet | Nakano, Satoshi Nishimura, Kazuhiko |
| contents | Using a gap-free, millennial-resolution ice-core record spanning the last 130,000 years, we identify the feedback architecture between Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO$_2$. The series are found to be cointegrated, justifying estimation with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The estimated long-run relationship yields a temperature change of 13.0 K per CO$_2$ doubling. Structural identification combining Milankovitch-cycle instrumental variables with the VECM residuals yields a contemporaneous carbon response (CCR) of 5.77 ppm/K, whereas the contemporaneous temperature response (CTR) is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Accounting for lagged feedbacks, the cumulative temperature response within one millennium of CO$_2$ doubling reaches 11.8 K. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_06986 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Structural Cointegration of the Climate--Carbon Feedback: Evidence from the Last 130,000 Years Nakano, Satoshi Nishimura, Kazuhiko Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Using a gap-free, millennial-resolution ice-core record spanning the last 130,000 years, we identify the feedback architecture between Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO$_2$. The series are found to be cointegrated, justifying estimation with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The estimated long-run relationship yields a temperature change of 13.0 K per CO$_2$ doubling. Structural identification combining Milankovitch-cycle instrumental variables with the VECM residuals yields a contemporaneous carbon response (CCR) of 5.77 ppm/K, whereas the contemporaneous temperature response (CTR) is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Accounting for lagged feedbacks, the cumulative temperature response within one millennium of CO$_2$ doubling reaches 11.8 K. |
| title | Structural Cointegration of the Climate--Carbon Feedback: Evidence from the Last 130,000 Years |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06986 |