Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08013 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866917504092209152 |
|---|---|
| author | Liu, Nairui He, Fang Tang, Xindi Wang, Yineng |
| author_facet | Liu, Nairui He, Fang Tang, Xindi Wang, Yineng |
| contents | Accurate forecasts of segment-level sailing durations are fundamental to enhancing maritime schedule reliability and optimizing long-term port operations. However, conventional estimated time of arrival (ETA) models are primarily designed for the immediate next port of call and rely heavily on real-time automatic identification system (AIS) data, which is inherently unavailable for future voyage segments. To address this gap, the study reformulates future-port ETA prediction as a segment-level time-series forecasting problem. We develop a transformer-based architecture that integrates historical sailing durations, destination port congestion proxies, and static vessel descriptors. The proposed framework employs a causally masked attention mechanism to capture long-range temporal dependencies and a multi-task learning head to jointly predict segment sailing durations and port congestion states, leveraging shared latent signals to mitigate high uncertainty. Evaluation on a real-world global dataset from 2021 demonstrates the proposed model consistently outperforms a comprehensive suite of competitive baselines. The result shows a relative reduction of 4.70% in mean absolute error (MAE), 4.95% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 2.59% in root mean squared error (RMSE) compared with sequential deep learning models. The relative reductions compared with gradient boosting machines are 7.03% in MAE, 39.49% in MAPE and 4.37% in RMSE. The case study conducted on one major destination port further illustrates the model's superior accuracy. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_08013 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Beyond the Next Port: A Multi-Task Transformer for Forecasting Future Voyage Segment Durations Liu, Nairui He, Fang Tang, Xindi Wang, Yineng Machine Learning Accurate forecasts of segment-level sailing durations are fundamental to enhancing maritime schedule reliability and optimizing long-term port operations. However, conventional estimated time of arrival (ETA) models are primarily designed for the immediate next port of call and rely heavily on real-time automatic identification system (AIS) data, which is inherently unavailable for future voyage segments. To address this gap, the study reformulates future-port ETA prediction as a segment-level time-series forecasting problem. We develop a transformer-based architecture that integrates historical sailing durations, destination port congestion proxies, and static vessel descriptors. The proposed framework employs a causally masked attention mechanism to capture long-range temporal dependencies and a multi-task learning head to jointly predict segment sailing durations and port congestion states, leveraging shared latent signals to mitigate high uncertainty. Evaluation on a real-world global dataset from 2021 demonstrates the proposed model consistently outperforms a comprehensive suite of competitive baselines. The result shows a relative reduction of 4.70% in mean absolute error (MAE), 4.95% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 2.59% in root mean squared error (RMSE) compared with sequential deep learning models. The relative reductions compared with gradient boosting machines are 7.03% in MAE, 39.49% in MAPE and 4.37% in RMSE. The case study conducted on one major destination port further illustrates the model's superior accuracy. |
| title | Beyond the Next Port: A Multi-Task Transformer for Forecasting Future Voyage Segment Durations |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08013 |