Statistical Characterization and Prediction of E2E Latency over LEO Satellite Networks
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866911371853037568 |
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| author | Casparsen, Andreas Jakobsen, Jonas Ellegaard Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen Popovski, Petar Mayorga, Israel Leyva |
| author_facet | Casparsen, Andreas Jakobsen, Jonas Ellegaard Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen Popovski, Petar Mayorga, Israel Leyva |
| contents | Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are emerging as an essential communication infrastructure, with standardized 5G-based non-terrestrial networks and their integration with terrestrial systems envisioned as a key feature of 6G. However, current LEO systems still exhibit significant latency variations, limiting their suitability for latency-sensitive services. We present a detailed statistical analysis of end-to-end latency based on 500Hz experimental bidirectional one-way measurements and introduce a segmentation of the deterministic 15-second periodic behavior observed in Starlink. We characterize handover-induced boundary regions that produce latency spikes lasting approximately 140 ms at the beginning and 75 ms at the end of each cycle, followed by a stable intra-period regime, enabling accurate short-term prediction. This analysis shows that latency prediction based on long-term statistics leads to pessimistic estimates. In contrast, by exploiting the periodic structure, isolating boundary regions, and applying lightweight parametric and non-parametric models to intra-period latency distributions, we achieve 99th-percentile latency prediction errors below 50 ms. Furthermore, period-level latency prediction and classification enable adaptive transmission strategies by identifying upcoming periods where application latency requirements cannot be satisfied, necessitating the use of alternative systems. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_08439 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Statistical Characterization and Prediction of E2E Latency over LEO Satellite Networks Casparsen, Andreas Jakobsen, Jonas Ellegaard Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen Popovski, Petar Mayorga, Israel Leyva Networking and Internet Architecture Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are emerging as an essential communication infrastructure, with standardized 5G-based non-terrestrial networks and their integration with terrestrial systems envisioned as a key feature of 6G. However, current LEO systems still exhibit significant latency variations, limiting their suitability for latency-sensitive services. We present a detailed statistical analysis of end-to-end latency based on 500Hz experimental bidirectional one-way measurements and introduce a segmentation of the deterministic 15-second periodic behavior observed in Starlink. We characterize handover-induced boundary regions that produce latency spikes lasting approximately 140 ms at the beginning and 75 ms at the end of each cycle, followed by a stable intra-period regime, enabling accurate short-term prediction. This analysis shows that latency prediction based on long-term statistics leads to pessimistic estimates. In contrast, by exploiting the periodic structure, isolating boundary regions, and applying lightweight parametric and non-parametric models to intra-period latency distributions, we achieve 99th-percentile latency prediction errors below 50 ms. Furthermore, period-level latency prediction and classification enable adaptive transmission strategies by identifying upcoming periods where application latency requirements cannot be satisfied, necessitating the use of alternative systems. |
| title | Statistical Characterization and Prediction of E2E Latency over LEO Satellite Networks |
| topic | Networking and Internet Architecture |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08439 |