Semi-physical Gamma-Process Degradation Modeling and Performance-Driven Opportunistic Maintenance Optimization for LED Lighting Systems

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Shi, Haohao, Truong-Ba, Huy, Cholette, Michael E., Harris, Brenden, Montes, Juan, Chan, Tommy
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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_version_ 1866912823952539648
author Shi, Haohao
Truong-Ba, Huy
Cholette, Michael E.
Harris, Brenden
Montes, Juan
Chan, Tommy
author_facet Shi, Haohao
Truong-Ba, Huy
Cholette, Michael E.
Harris, Brenden
Montes, Juan
Chan, Tommy
contents Large-scale LED lighting systems degrade through gradual package degradation and abrupt driver outages, while acceptability is determined by spatio-temporal illuminance compliance rather than component reliability alone. This paper proposes a performance-driven, simulation-in-the-loop framework for opportunistic maintenance optimization of LED lighting systems. LED package degradation is modeled by a semi-physical non-homogeneous Gamma process whose mean follows an exponential lumen-maintenance trend, and driver outages are described by a Weibull lifetime model. Parameters are calibrated from LM-80 accelerated degradation data via Bayesian inference, enabling uncertainty propagation to operating conditions. System performance is evaluated using ray-tracing-based illuminance mapping, and static indices (average illuminance and uniformity) are converted into a long-term dynamic deficiency-ratio metric via performance-deficiency durations over event intervals. To enable scalable Monte Carlo policy evaluation and search, a surrogate-based performance mapping replaces repeated ray-tracing with negligible loss of fidelity. An opportunistic policy is optimized in a multi-objective setting to balance performance deficiency, site visits, and replacements. A case study demonstrates the practicality of the framework and the resulting Pareto trade-offs for maintenance decision support.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_09380
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Semi-physical Gamma-Process Degradation Modeling and Performance-Driven Opportunistic Maintenance Optimization for LED Lighting Systems
Shi, Haohao
Truong-Ba, Huy
Cholette, Michael E.
Harris, Brenden
Montes, Juan
Chan, Tommy
Systems and Control
Large-scale LED lighting systems degrade through gradual package degradation and abrupt driver outages, while acceptability is determined by spatio-temporal illuminance compliance rather than component reliability alone. This paper proposes a performance-driven, simulation-in-the-loop framework for opportunistic maintenance optimization of LED lighting systems. LED package degradation is modeled by a semi-physical non-homogeneous Gamma process whose mean follows an exponential lumen-maintenance trend, and driver outages are described by a Weibull lifetime model. Parameters are calibrated from LM-80 accelerated degradation data via Bayesian inference, enabling uncertainty propagation to operating conditions. System performance is evaluated using ray-tracing-based illuminance mapping, and static indices (average illuminance and uniformity) are converted into a long-term dynamic deficiency-ratio metric via performance-deficiency durations over event intervals. To enable scalable Monte Carlo policy evaluation and search, a surrogate-based performance mapping replaces repeated ray-tracing with negligible loss of fidelity. An opportunistic policy is optimized in a multi-objective setting to balance performance deficiency, site visits, and replacements. A case study demonstrates the practicality of the framework and the resulting Pareto trade-offs for maintenance decision support.
title Semi-physical Gamma-Process Degradation Modeling and Performance-Driven Opportunistic Maintenance Optimization for LED Lighting Systems
topic Systems and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09380