Demographics of Close-In TESS Exoplanets Orbiting FGK Main-sequence Stars
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866918289097097216 |
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| author | Cui, Kaiming Armstrong, David J. Hadjigeorghiou, Andreas Lafarga, Marina Kunovac, Vedad Doyle, Lauren Nieto, Luis Agustín Díaz, Rodrigo F. |
| author_facet | Cui, Kaiming Armstrong, David J. Hadjigeorghiou, Andreas Lafarga, Marina Kunovac, Vedad Doyle, Lauren Nieto, Luis Agustín Díaz, Rodrigo F. |
| contents | Understanding the demographics of close-in planets is crucial for insights into exoplanet formation and evolution. We present a detailed analysis of occurrence rates for close-in (0.5-16 day) planets with radii between 2 and 20$\,R_{\oplus}$ around FGK main-sequence stars. Our study uses a comprehensive sample from four years of TESS Science Processing Operations Center full-frame image data cross-matched with Gaia, analysed through our rigorous detection, vetting, and validation pipeline. Using high-confidence planet candidates, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine occurrence rates in the two-dimensional orbital period-radius plane. Our results are presented using 10-by-10 bins across the period-radius parameter space, offering unprecedented resolution and statistical precision. We find an overall occurrence rate of $9.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\%$. When using identical binning, our occurrence rate posteriors distributions align with Kepler's but have a magnitude smaller uncertainties on average. For hot Jupiters, we estimate the overall occurrence rate of $0.39^{+0.03}_{-0.02}\%$. This value is consistent with the previous Kepler FGK-type result within $1σ$. We find an overall occurrence rate of Neptunian desert planets of $0.08\pm0.01\%$, to our knowledge the first such determination. Additionally, in a volume-limited Gaia subsample within 100 pc in the same parameter region, we measure an overall planet occurrence rate of $15.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}\%$ and a hot Jupiter occurrence rate of $0.42^{+0.16}_{-0.12}\%$. Our results establishes an improved foundation for constraining theoretical models of exoplanet populations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_09492 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Demographics of Close-In TESS Exoplanets Orbiting FGK Main-sequence Stars Cui, Kaiming Armstrong, David J. Hadjigeorghiou, Andreas Lafarga, Marina Kunovac, Vedad Doyle, Lauren Nieto, Luis Agustín Díaz, Rodrigo F. Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Understanding the demographics of close-in planets is crucial for insights into exoplanet formation and evolution. We present a detailed analysis of occurrence rates for close-in (0.5-16 day) planets with radii between 2 and 20$\,R_{\oplus}$ around FGK main-sequence stars. Our study uses a comprehensive sample from four years of TESS Science Processing Operations Center full-frame image data cross-matched with Gaia, analysed through our rigorous detection, vetting, and validation pipeline. Using high-confidence planet candidates, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine occurrence rates in the two-dimensional orbital period-radius plane. Our results are presented using 10-by-10 bins across the period-radius parameter space, offering unprecedented resolution and statistical precision. We find an overall occurrence rate of $9.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\%$. When using identical binning, our occurrence rate posteriors distributions align with Kepler's but have a magnitude smaller uncertainties on average. For hot Jupiters, we estimate the overall occurrence rate of $0.39^{+0.03}_{-0.02}\%$. This value is consistent with the previous Kepler FGK-type result within $1σ$. We find an overall occurrence rate of Neptunian desert planets of $0.08\pm0.01\%$, to our knowledge the first such determination. Additionally, in a volume-limited Gaia subsample within 100 pc in the same parameter region, we measure an overall planet occurrence rate of $15.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}\%$ and a hot Jupiter occurrence rate of $0.42^{+0.16}_{-0.12}\%$. Our results establishes an improved foundation for constraining theoretical models of exoplanet populations. |
| title | Demographics of Close-In TESS Exoplanets Orbiting FGK Main-sequence Stars |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09492 |