Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910193618518016 |
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| author | He, Yifan Wu, Yixuan Jiao, Yifei Dai, Wen-Yue Liu, Xin Cheng, Bin Baoyin, Hexi |
| author_facet | He, Yifan Wu, Yixuan Jiao, Yifei Dai, Wen-Yue Liu, Xin Cheng, Bin Baoyin, Hexi |
| contents | The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 -- a $\sim$60 m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor -- has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a $\sim$4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with equivalent kinetic energy of $\sim$6.5 Mt TNT, is expected to produce a $\sim$1 km crater on the Moon, and will be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history. Despite the associated risk, this scenario offers a rare and valuable scientific opportunity. Using a hybrid framework combining Monte Carlo orbital propagation, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) impact modeling, and N-body ejecta dynamics, we evaluate the physical outcomes and propose the observation timelines of this rare event. Our results suggest an optical flash of visual magnitude from -2.5 to -3 lasting several minutes directly after the impact, followed by hours of infrared afterglow from $\sim$2000 K molten rock cooling to a few hundred K. The associated seismic energy release would lead to a global-scale lunar reverberation (magnitude $\sim$5.0) that can be detectable by modern seismometers. Furthermore, the impact would eject $\sim$10$^8$ kg of debris that escapes the lunar gravity, with a small fraction reaching Earth to produce a lunar meteor outburst within 100 years. Finally, we integrate these results into a coordinated observation timeline, identifying the best detection windows for ground-based telescopes, lunar orbiters, and surface stations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_10666 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 He, Yifan Wu, Yixuan Jiao, Yifei Dai, Wen-Yue Liu, Xin Cheng, Bin Baoyin, Hexi Earth and Planetary Astrophysics The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 -- a $\sim$60 m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor -- has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a $\sim$4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with equivalent kinetic energy of $\sim$6.5 Mt TNT, is expected to produce a $\sim$1 km crater on the Moon, and will be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history. Despite the associated risk, this scenario offers a rare and valuable scientific opportunity. Using a hybrid framework combining Monte Carlo orbital propagation, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) impact modeling, and N-body ejecta dynamics, we evaluate the physical outcomes and propose the observation timelines of this rare event. Our results suggest an optical flash of visual magnitude from -2.5 to -3 lasting several minutes directly after the impact, followed by hours of infrared afterglow from $\sim$2000 K molten rock cooling to a few hundred K. The associated seismic energy release would lead to a global-scale lunar reverberation (magnitude $\sim$5.0) that can be detectable by modern seismometers. Furthermore, the impact would eject $\sim$10$^8$ kg of debris that escapes the lunar gravity, with a small fraction reaching Earth to produce a lunar meteor outburst within 100 years. Finally, we integrate these results into a coordinated observation timeline, identifying the best detection windows for ground-based telescopes, lunar orbiters, and surface stations. |
| title | Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.10666 |