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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.11602 |
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| _version_ | 1866918352425844736 |
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| author | Kang, Sungwoo |
| author_facet | Kang, Sungwoo |
| contents | How information transmits through prices -- and why this transmission breaks down -- remains poorly understood. We combine regularized deconvolution with Hawkes process analysis to study the impulse response structure of investor flows in the Korean equity market (January 2020 -- February 2025). Three findings emerge: foreign and institutional flows drive permanent price discovery while individual flows provide contrarian liquidity; individual investor surges are predominantly panic-driven and exhibit near-explosive self-excitation; and during herding episodes, institutional price impact deteriorates sharply in small-cap stocks while large-cap stocks maintain resilience. These results reframe market efficiency as a state variable -- conditional on both herding intensity and firm size -- rather than a structural constant. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_11602 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Physics of Price Discovery: Deconvolving Information, Volatility, and the Critical Breakdown of Signal during Retail Herding Kang, Sungwoo Statistical Finance How information transmits through prices -- and why this transmission breaks down -- remains poorly understood. We combine regularized deconvolution with Hawkes process analysis to study the impulse response structure of investor flows in the Korean equity market (January 2020 -- February 2025). Three findings emerge: foreign and institutional flows drive permanent price discovery while individual flows provide contrarian liquidity; individual investor surges are predominantly panic-driven and exhibit near-explosive self-excitation; and during herding episodes, institutional price impact deteriorates sharply in small-cap stocks while large-cap stocks maintain resilience. These results reframe market efficiency as a state variable -- conditional on both herding intensity and firm size -- rather than a structural constant. |
| title | The Physics of Price Discovery: Deconvolving Information, Volatility, and the Critical Breakdown of Signal during Retail Herding |
| topic | Statistical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.11602 |