Cover Image

Simulated Ignorance Fails: A Systematic Study of LLM Behaviors on Forecasting Problems Before Model Knowledge Cutoff

Fuente: arXiv

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Li, Zehan, Wang, Yuxuan, Lahib, Ali El, Xia, Ying-Jieh, Pi, Xinyu
Format:	Preprint
Published:	2026
Subjects:	Computation and Language Artificial Intelligence
Online Access:	Acceder al recurso
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

Similar Items

Temporal Leakage in Search-Engine Date-Filtered Web Retrieval: A Retrospective Forecasting Case Study
by: Lahib, Ali El, et al.
Published: (2026)

Beyond LLMs: A Linguistic Approach to Causal Graph Generation from Narrative Texts
by: Li, Zehan, et al.
Published: (2025)

Stop Before You Fail: Operational Capability Boundaries for Mitigating Unproductive Reasoning in Large Reasoning Models
by: Zhang, Qingjie, et al.
Published: (2025)

Language Models Fail to Introspect About Their Knowledge of Language
by: Song, Siyuan, et al.
Published: (2025)

Systematic Biases in LLM Simulations of Debates
by: Taubenfeld, Amir, et al.
Published: (2024)

LLM Self-Explanations Fail Semantic Invariance
by: Szeider, Stefan
Published: (2026)

Evaluating and Enhancing Large Language Models for Conversational Reasoning on Knowledge Graphs
by: Huang, Yuxuan
Published: (2023)

When Refusals Fail: Unstable Safety Mechanisms in Long-Context LLM Agents
by: Hadeliya, Tsimur, et al.
Published: (2025)

How Well Can LLM Agents Simulate End-User Security and Privacy Attitudes and Behaviors?
by: Li, Yuxuan, et al.
Published: (2026)

InstructPatentGPT: Training patent language models to follow instructions with human feedback
by: Lee, Jieh-Sheng
Published: (2024)

Ask Again, Then Fail: Large Language Models' Vacillations in Judgment
by: Xie, Qiming, et al.
Published: (2023)

Tracking the Limits of Knowledge Propagation: How LLMs Fail at Multi-Step Reasoning with Conflicting Knowledge
by: Feng, Yiyang, et al.
Published: (2026)

Think Thrice Before You Act: Progressive Thought Refinement in Large Language Models
by: Du, Chengyu, et al.
Published: (2024)

Hatred Stems from Ignorance! Distillation of the Persuasion Modes in Countering Conversational Hate Speech
by: Alyahya, Ghadi, et al.
Published: (2024)

Retrieval Augmented Question Answering: When Should LLMs Admit Ignorance?
by: Wang, Dingmin, et al.
Published: (2025)

From Data to Behavior: Predicting Unintended Model Behaviors Before Training
by: Wang, Mengru, et al.
Published: (2026)

Look Before You Leap: Autonomous Exploration for LLM Agents
by: Ye, Ziang, et al.
Published: (2026)

When Safety Fails Before the Answer: Benchmarking Harmful Behavior Detection in Reasoning Chains
by: Kakkar, Ishita, et al.
Published: (2026)

Look Before You Leap: Problem Elaboration Prompting Improves Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models
by: Liao, Haoran, et al.
Published: (2024)

Deployability-Centric Infrastructure-as-Code Generation: Fail, Learn, Refine, and Succeed through LLM-Empowered DevOps Simulation
by: Zhang, Tianyi, et al.
Published: (2025)

CitySim: Modeling Urban Behaviors and City Dynamics with Large-Scale LLM-Driven Agent Simulation
by: Bougie, Nicolas, et al.
Published: (2025)

SKG-LLM: Developing a Mathematical Model for Stroke Knowledge Graph Construction Using Large Language Models
by: Sarabadani, Ali, et al.
Published: (2025)

SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generation
by: Li, Yuhong, et al.
Published: (2024)

Reason-Align-Respond: Aligning LLM Reasoning with Knowledge Graphs for KGQA
by: Shen, Xiangqing, et al.
Published: (2025)

Think Before Refusal : Triggering Safety Reflection in LLMs to Mitigate False Refusal Behavior
by: Si, Shengyun, et al.
Published: (2025)

A Coin Flip for Safety: LLM Judges Fail to Reliably Measure Adversarial Robustness
by: Schwinn, Leo, et al.
Published: (2026)

Why Do LLM-based Web Agents Fail? A Hierarchical Planning Perspective
by: Aghzal, Mohamed, et al.
Published: (2026)

Are LLM Agents Behaviorally Coherent? Latent Profiles for Social Simulation
by: Mooney, James, et al.
Published: (2025)

Before You Interpret the Profile: Validity Scaling for LLM Metacognitive Self-Report
by: Cacioli, Jon-Paul
Published: (2026)

Neural Networks Remember More: The Power of Parameter Isolation and Combination
by: Zeng, Biqing, et al.
Published: (2025)

MAC-Tuning: LLM Multi-Compositional Problem Reasoning with Enhanced Knowledge Boundary Awareness
by: Huang, Junsheng, et al.
Published: (2025)

Distinguishing Ignorance from Error in LLM Hallucinations
by: Simhi, Adi, et al.
Published: (2024)

The Knowledge Alignment Problem: Bridging Human and External Knowledge for Large Language Models
by: Zhang, Shuo, et al.
Published: (2023)

Learning to Plan Before Answering: Self-Teaching LLMs to Learn Abstract Plans for Problem Solving
by: Zhang, Jin, et al.
Published: (2025)

DPRF: A Generalizable Dynamic Persona Refinement Framework for Optimizing Behavior Alignment Between Personalized LLM Role-Playing Agents and Humans
by: Yao, Bingsheng, et al.
Published: (2025)

Towards Foundation Models for Knowledge Graph Reasoning
by: Galkin, Mikhail, et al.
Published: (2023)

Simulating Students or Sycophantic Problem Solving? On Misconception Faithfulness of LLM Simulators
by: Do, Heejin, et al.
Published: (2026)

Lost in the Noise: How Reasoning Models Fail with Contextual Distractors
by: Lee, Seongyun, et al.
Published: (2026)

Read Before You Think: Mitigating LLM Comprehension Failures with Step-by-Step Reading
by: Han, Feijiang, et al.
Published: (2025)

Do Before You Judge: Self-Reference as a Pathway to Better LLM Evaluation
by: Lin, Wei-Hsiang, et al.
Published: (2025)