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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14150 |
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| _version_ | 1866914615141597184 |
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| author | Martinez, Alejandra |
| author_facet | Martinez, Alejandra |
| contents | This paper provides causal evidence that temporary supply disruptions reshape firms' relationship portfolios in international trade. Using exogenous road disruptions during Colombia's 2010-11 La Niña episode, I identify exposure at the buyer-seller relationship level, exploiting variation within importers' supplier portfolios. Exposed relationships are less likely to terminate when importers have alternative non-exposed suppliers. However, firms with broader portfolio exposure gradually reduce their relationship networks and may eventually exit the market. A framework linking relationship surplus to portfolio composition explains these contrasting responses and shows how the same shock generates opposite effects at relationship and firm levels. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_14150 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Trade relationships during and after a crisis Martinez, Alejandra General Economics Economics This paper provides causal evidence that temporary supply disruptions reshape firms' relationship portfolios in international trade. Using exogenous road disruptions during Colombia's 2010-11 La Niña episode, I identify exposure at the buyer-seller relationship level, exploiting variation within importers' supplier portfolios. Exposed relationships are less likely to terminate when importers have alternative non-exposed suppliers. However, firms with broader portfolio exposure gradually reduce their relationship networks and may eventually exit the market. A framework linking relationship surplus to portfolio composition explains these contrasting responses and shows how the same shock generates opposite effects at relationship and firm levels. |
| title | Trade relationships during and after a crisis |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14150 |