Lattice: A Confidence-Gated Hybrid System for Uncertainty-Aware Sequential Prediction with Behavioral Archetypes
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866909997613449216 |
|---|---|
| author | Bannis, Lorian |
| author_facet | Bannis, Lorian |
| contents | We introduce Lattice, a hybrid sequential prediction system that conditionally activates learned behavioral structure using binary confidence gating. The system clusters behavior windows into behavioral archetypes and uses binary confidence gating to activate archetype-based scoring only when confidence exceeds a threshold, falling back to baseline predictions when uncertain. We validate Lattice on recommendation systems (MovieLens), scientific time-series (LIGO), and financial markets, using LSTM and transformer backbones. On MovieLens with LSTM, Lattice achieves +31.9% improvement over LSTM baseline in HR@10 (p < 3.29 x 10^-25, 30 seeds), outperforming transformer baselines by 109.4% over SASRec and 218.6% over BERT4Rec. On LIGO and financial data, the system correctly refuses archetype activation when distribution shift occurs - a successful outcome demonstrating confidence gating prevents false activation. On transformer backbones, Lattice provides 0.0% improvement (neutral, no degradation), gracefully deferring when structure is already present. This bidirectional validation - activating when patterns apply, refusing when they don't, and deferring when redundant - supports confidence gating as a promising architectural principle for managing epistemic uncertainty in safety-critical applications. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_15423 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Lattice: A Confidence-Gated Hybrid System for Uncertainty-Aware Sequential Prediction with Behavioral Archetypes Bannis, Lorian Machine Learning We introduce Lattice, a hybrid sequential prediction system that conditionally activates learned behavioral structure using binary confidence gating. The system clusters behavior windows into behavioral archetypes and uses binary confidence gating to activate archetype-based scoring only when confidence exceeds a threshold, falling back to baseline predictions when uncertain. We validate Lattice on recommendation systems (MovieLens), scientific time-series (LIGO), and financial markets, using LSTM and transformer backbones. On MovieLens with LSTM, Lattice achieves +31.9% improvement over LSTM baseline in HR@10 (p < 3.29 x 10^-25, 30 seeds), outperforming transformer baselines by 109.4% over SASRec and 218.6% over BERT4Rec. On LIGO and financial data, the system correctly refuses archetype activation when distribution shift occurs - a successful outcome demonstrating confidence gating prevents false activation. On transformer backbones, Lattice provides 0.0% improvement (neutral, no degradation), gracefully deferring when structure is already present. This bidirectional validation - activating when patterns apply, refusing when they don't, and deferring when redundant - supports confidence gating as a promising architectural principle for managing epistemic uncertainty in safety-critical applications. |
| title | Lattice: A Confidence-Gated Hybrid System for Uncertainty-Aware Sequential Prediction with Behavioral Archetypes |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15423 |