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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15691 |
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| _version_ | 1866911391885033472 |
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| author | Saito, Keita Eizuka, Minori Hu, Zhuojun Ichimura, Koichi Ikeda, Motoyasu Ishidoshiro, Koji Kawada, Nanami Machado, Lucas N. Marti-Magro, Lluis Mikami, Kazuha Tachibana, Koga Wendell, Roger A. |
| author_facet | Saito, Keita Eizuka, Minori Hu, Zhuojun Ichimura, Koichi Ikeda, Motoyasu Ishidoshiro, Koji Kawada, Nanami Machado, Lucas N. Marti-Magro, Lluis Mikami, Kazuha Tachibana, Koga Wendell, Roger A. |
| contents | Massive stars ($M>8\mathrm{M_\odot}$) emit neutrinos known as pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos through thermal and nuclear interactions for cooling the stellar core during the final stage of stellar evolution. Real-time monitoring of their pre-SN neutrino interaction rate offers a crucial opportunity to issue an early warning to a core-collapse supernova. Some neutrino detectors, including KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande already operate pre-SN alarm systems based on a statistically significant excess of the observed event rate over the expected background. To improve alarm sensitivity, we propose an alarm method which incorporates the time evolution of the observed pre-SN neutrino event rate. The method uses a log likelihood ratio test that references multiple theoretical stellar-evolution models and treats the core collapse time as a nuisance parameter to be profiled over. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using simulated data for the KamLAND, Super-Kamiokande with dissolved Gadolinium (SK-Gd) and their combined analysis. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the warning time compared to the conventional rate-only method, while maintaining the same false alarm rate. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_15691 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Development of an early warning method incorporating pre-supernova neutrino light curves Saito, Keita Eizuka, Minori Hu, Zhuojun Ichimura, Koichi Ikeda, Motoyasu Ishidoshiro, Koji Kawada, Nanami Machado, Lucas N. Marti-Magro, Lluis Mikami, Kazuha Tachibana, Koga Wendell, Roger A. High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Massive stars ($M>8\mathrm{M_\odot}$) emit neutrinos known as pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos through thermal and nuclear interactions for cooling the stellar core during the final stage of stellar evolution. Real-time monitoring of their pre-SN neutrino interaction rate offers a crucial opportunity to issue an early warning to a core-collapse supernova. Some neutrino detectors, including KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande already operate pre-SN alarm systems based on a statistically significant excess of the observed event rate over the expected background. To improve alarm sensitivity, we propose an alarm method which incorporates the time evolution of the observed pre-SN neutrino event rate. The method uses a log likelihood ratio test that references multiple theoretical stellar-evolution models and treats the core collapse time as a nuisance parameter to be profiled over. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using simulated data for the KamLAND, Super-Kamiokande with dissolved Gadolinium (SK-Gd) and their combined analysis. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the warning time compared to the conventional rate-only method, while maintaining the same false alarm rate. |
| title | Development of an early warning method incorporating pre-supernova neutrino light curves |
| topic | High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15691 |