Collaborative Decision-Making and Optimal Utilization of Pathfinding Flights during Convective Weather
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910001742741504 |
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| author | Choi, Jimin Idris, Husni R. Tran, Huy T. Li, Max Z. |
| author_facet | Choi, Jimin Idris, Husni R. Tran, Huy T. Li, Max Z. |
| contents | Air traffic operations are strongly influenced by convective weather, and one common response is pathfinder operations, in which a designated aircraft tests the viability of weather-impacted airspace and routes. Despite relatively routine use in practice, how pathfinder operations evolve under uncertainty and how the pathfinder decision-making process unfolds are largely treated as exogenous. Addressing this gap requires jointly modeling weather-driven system accessibility, flight responses to pathfinder offers, and the sequencing of those offers to improve outcomes. We develop a unified analytical framework that connects weather-driven system state transitions, flight acceptance decisions, and the sequencing of pathfinder offers. We first construct a four-state Markov chain to model stochastic closure and reopening of exit points, or fixes, out of the terminal departure airspace surrounding a major airport, pathfinder selection, and pathfinding execution, and analyze its steady-state behavior to characterize long-term capacity and delay implications. We introduce utility-based decision models for flights, air traffic control (ATC), and dispatchers, and analyze worst-case collective rejection to quantify system vulnerability under selfless behavior and uncertainty. Finally, we formulate optimization problems that model ATC-initiated and dispatcher-initated pathfinder offers, with the goal of optimizing the sequence of pathfinder offers. Using a discrete event simulation for a major US airport, we show that ATC- and dispatcher-driven objectives lead to distinct, near real-time sequencing strategies, providing the first formal decision models for pathfinder operations under weather uncertainty. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_18942 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Collaborative Decision-Making and Optimal Utilization of Pathfinding Flights during Convective Weather Choi, Jimin Idris, Husni R. Tran, Huy T. Li, Max Z. Optimization and Control Air traffic operations are strongly influenced by convective weather, and one common response is pathfinder operations, in which a designated aircraft tests the viability of weather-impacted airspace and routes. Despite relatively routine use in practice, how pathfinder operations evolve under uncertainty and how the pathfinder decision-making process unfolds are largely treated as exogenous. Addressing this gap requires jointly modeling weather-driven system accessibility, flight responses to pathfinder offers, and the sequencing of those offers to improve outcomes. We develop a unified analytical framework that connects weather-driven system state transitions, flight acceptance decisions, and the sequencing of pathfinder offers. We first construct a four-state Markov chain to model stochastic closure and reopening of exit points, or fixes, out of the terminal departure airspace surrounding a major airport, pathfinder selection, and pathfinding execution, and analyze its steady-state behavior to characterize long-term capacity and delay implications. We introduce utility-based decision models for flights, air traffic control (ATC), and dispatchers, and analyze worst-case collective rejection to quantify system vulnerability under selfless behavior and uncertainty. Finally, we formulate optimization problems that model ATC-initiated and dispatcher-initated pathfinder offers, with the goal of optimizing the sequence of pathfinder offers. Using a discrete event simulation for a major US airport, we show that ATC- and dispatcher-driven objectives lead to distinct, near real-time sequencing strategies, providing the first formal decision models for pathfinder operations under weather uncertainty. |
| title | Collaborative Decision-Making and Optimal Utilization of Pathfinding Flights during Convective Weather |
| topic | Optimization and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.18942 |