Multiscale feedback drives viral evolution and epidemic dynamics
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866910001836064768 |
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| author | Muñoz-Sánchez, Juan C. Lázaro, J. Tomás Sardanyés, Josep Elena, Santiago F. |
| author_facet | Muñoz-Sánchez, Juan C. Lázaro, J. Tomás Sardanyés, Josep Elena, Santiago F. |
| contents | We introduce a minimal multiscale framework that links within-host virus dynamics to population-level SIRS epidemiology through explicit, bidirectional coupling. At the microscopic layer, a two variant quasispecies (master and mutant genomes with packaged virions) evolves on a fast timescale. At the macroscopic layer, two infectious classes (master- and mutant-infected), susceptible, recovered, and deceased individuals evolve slowly. The two scales are connected through transmission rates that depend on instantaneous virion abundance and through prevalence-weighted effective replication rates. Exploiting the timescale separation, we formalize a coarse-grained slow-fast closure: the genome-virion subsystem rapidly relaxes to quasi-steady states that parameterize time-varying transmission in the slow epidemiological system. This yields an integrated expression for the basic reproduction number and sharp inequalities that delineate coexistence versus exclusion. A key prediction is a context-dependent error threshold that shifts with the prevalence ratio, enabling transient pseudo-error catastrophes driven by epidemic composition rather than intrinsic fidelity. Linearization reveals parameter regions with damped oscillations arising solely from the microscopic-macroscopic feedback. Two illustrative extremes bracket the model's behavior: an avirulent strongly immunizing strain that benignly replaces the master, and a hypervirulent weakly immunizing that self-limits via host depletion and collapses transmission. This framework yields testable signatures linking viral load, incidence, and within-host composition. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_19101 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Multiscale feedback drives viral evolution and epidemic dynamics Muñoz-Sánchez, Juan C. Lázaro, J. Tomás Sardanyés, Josep Elena, Santiago F. Dynamical Systems 37N25, 92D30, 92D10, 92D15 We introduce a minimal multiscale framework that links within-host virus dynamics to population-level SIRS epidemiology through explicit, bidirectional coupling. At the microscopic layer, a two variant quasispecies (master and mutant genomes with packaged virions) evolves on a fast timescale. At the macroscopic layer, two infectious classes (master- and mutant-infected), susceptible, recovered, and deceased individuals evolve slowly. The two scales are connected through transmission rates that depend on instantaneous virion abundance and through prevalence-weighted effective replication rates. Exploiting the timescale separation, we formalize a coarse-grained slow-fast closure: the genome-virion subsystem rapidly relaxes to quasi-steady states that parameterize time-varying transmission in the slow epidemiological system. This yields an integrated expression for the basic reproduction number and sharp inequalities that delineate coexistence versus exclusion. A key prediction is a context-dependent error threshold that shifts with the prevalence ratio, enabling transient pseudo-error catastrophes driven by epidemic composition rather than intrinsic fidelity. Linearization reveals parameter regions with damped oscillations arising solely from the microscopic-macroscopic feedback. Two illustrative extremes bracket the model's behavior: an avirulent strongly immunizing strain that benignly replaces the master, and a hypervirulent weakly immunizing that self-limits via host depletion and collapses transmission. This framework yields testable signatures linking viral load, incidence, and within-host composition. |
| title | Multiscale feedback drives viral evolution and epidemic dynamics |
| topic | Dynamical Systems 37N25, 92D30, 92D10, 92D15 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19101 |