Scalable Decisions using a Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866914285410582528 |
|---|---|
| author | Ng, Hoiyi Imbens, Guido |
| author_facet | Ng, Hoiyi Imbens, Guido |
| contents | Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact, negative customer experience) require manual judgment, hindering scalability. We propose a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework that systematically incorporates multiple objectives and trade-offs by comparing expected risks across decisions. Our approach combines experimenter-defined loss functions with observed evidence, using hierarchical models to leverage historical experiment learnings for prior information on treatment effects. Through real and simulated Amazon supply chain experiments, we demonstrate that compared to null hypothesis statistical testing, our method increases estimation efficiency via informative hierarchical priors and simplifies decision-making by systematically incorporating business preferences and costs for comprehensive, scalable decisions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_20031 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Scalable Decisions using a Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach Ng, Hoiyi Imbens, Guido Applications Methodology Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact, negative customer experience) require manual judgment, hindering scalability. We propose a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework that systematically incorporates multiple objectives and trade-offs by comparing expected risks across decisions. Our approach combines experimenter-defined loss functions with observed evidence, using hierarchical models to leverage historical experiment learnings for prior information on treatment effects. Through real and simulated Amazon supply chain experiments, we demonstrate that compared to null hypothesis statistical testing, our method increases estimation efficiency via informative hierarchical priors and simplifies decision-making by systematically incorporating business preferences and costs for comprehensive, scalable decisions. |
| title | Scalable Decisions using a Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach |
| topic | Applications Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.20031 |