Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910021881692160 |
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| author | Farzulla, Murad |
| author_facet | Farzulla, Murad |
| contents | This study investigates whether cryptocurrency whitepaper narratives align with empirically observed market factor structure. We construct a pipeline combining zero-shot NLP classification of 38 whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with CP tensor decomposition of hourly market data (49 assets, 17,543 timestamps). Using Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient (phi), we find weak alignment between claims and market statistics (phi = 0.246, p = 0.339) and between claims and latent factors (phi = 0.058, p = 0.751). A methodological validation comparison (statistics versus factors, both derived from market data) achieves significance (p < 0.001), confirming the pipeline detects real structure. The null result indicates whitepaper narratives do not meaningfully predict market factor structure, with implications for narrative economics and investor decision-making. Entity-level analysis reveals specialized tokens (XMR, CRV, YFI) show stronger narrative-market correspondence than broad infrastructure tokens. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_20336 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis Farzulla, Murad Computational Finance Machine Learning 91G15, 62H25, 15A69 I.2.7; J.4 This study investigates whether cryptocurrency whitepaper narratives align with empirically observed market factor structure. We construct a pipeline combining zero-shot NLP classification of 38 whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with CP tensor decomposition of hourly market data (49 assets, 17,543 timestamps). Using Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient (phi), we find weak alignment between claims and market statistics (phi = 0.246, p = 0.339) and between claims and latent factors (phi = 0.058, p = 0.751). A methodological validation comparison (statistics versus factors, both derived from market data) achieves significance (p < 0.001), confirming the pipeline detects real structure. The null result indicates whitepaper narratives do not meaningfully predict market factor structure, with implications for narrative economics and investor decision-making. Entity-level analysis reveals specialized tokens (XMR, CRV, YFI) show stronger narrative-market correspondence than broad infrastructure tokens. |
| title | Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis |
| topic | Computational Finance Machine Learning 91G15, 62H25, 15A69 I.2.7; J.4 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.20336 |